| Okay so one thing I learned today from the little acreage exercise below is that Soybean Double Cropping has Doubled since 2006.. adding some 3.826 myn acres to the total crop category. Basically we have added.. 95.4 (13) - 79.3 (06) = 17.1 million corn acres in the US during the Modern Era.. Since the Katrina Energy price spike.. (which has not yet gone away..) We added 15.2 myn acres immediately in 2007 to corn which came MOSTLY from Soybeans.. down 11.2 myn acres.. The Next year we flipped it.. adding almost 12 myn acres BACK to soybeans as we doubled back 9% of the crop following wheat. Roughly 6.73 myn acres of Soybean double cropped. While trimming half of the corn acreage gains down 7.6 myn acres. Now the interesting thing to note is that since then.. double cropping has been as low as 3% in 2010.. and as high as 10% last year. I wonder how interested people are going to be to double crop this next year as Soybean prices fall? We could lose quite a bit of soybean acreage if we go back down to 3 or 4%.. 3.8 myn acres... ??? Here is the data set I used.. from BShull's work.. which is mostly FSA data.. except 2006 which is computed backwards (wrong see explanation below on that thread.. but hopefully close.) The total column is ONLY for those crops to the left.. it does not include Hay.. fwiw. | | BARLEY | CORN | COTTON, ELS | COTTON, UPLAND | OATS | RICE | SORGHUM | SOYBEANS | SUGAR BEETS | SUGARCANE | WHEAT | TOTAL | Hay | Soybean D/C | | Computed : 2006 | 3,270,000 | 75,857,230 | 308,500 | 14,490,950 | 3,277,000 | 2,852,000 | 5,844,900 | 74,079,467 | 1,342,078 | 741,282 | 56,191,500 | 238,254,907 | 60,807,000 | 5% | | 2,007 | 3,831,319 | 91,145,611 | 282,222 | 10,431,153 | 3,035,585 | 2,758,190 | 6,957,666 | 62,856,803 | 1,285,771 | 736,496 | 59,289,144 | 242,609,961 | 61,789,000 | 8% | | Increase/Decrease | 561,319 | 15,288,381 | (26,278) | (4,059,797) | (241,415) | (93,810) | 1,112,766 | (11,222,664) | (56,307) | (4,786) | 3,097,644 | 4,355,054 | | | | 2,008 | 3,958,279 | 83,393,737 | 171,494 | 9,187,131 | 2,513,338 | 2,978,885 | 7,692,755 | 74,801,146 | 1,096,831 | 748,558 | 61,571,053 | 248,113,209 | | 9% | | Increase/Decrease | 126,961 | (7,751,875) | (110,728) | (1,244,023) | (522,247) | 220,695 | 735,089 | 11,944,344 | (188,939) | 12,062 | 2,281,909 | 5,503,248 | | | | 2,009 | 3,285,417 | 83,841,811 | 138,945 | 8,879,600 | 2,577,714 | 3,106,526 | 5,971,470 | 76,405,645 | 1,196,147 | 725,492 | 57,250,750 | 243,379,518 | | 6% | | Increase/Decrease | (672,862) | 448,075 | (32,549) | (307,531) | 64,375 | 127,640 | (1,721,284) | 1,604,499 | 99,315 | (23,066) | (4,320,304) | (4,733,691) | | | | 2,010 | 2,608,781 | 85,373,233 | 201,987 | 10,614,698 | 2,369,018 | 3,605,071 | 4,854,862 | 76,318,369 | 1,188,813 | 756,226 | 50,813,797 | 238,704,855 | | 3% | | Increase/Decrease | (676,636) | 1,531,421 | 63,041 | 1,735,098 | (208,695) | 498,546 | (1,116,609) | (87,276) | (7,334) | 30,734 | (6,436,952) | (4,674,662) | | | | 2,011 | 2,331,406 | 88,864,419 | 292,309 | 14,230,579 | 1,679,806 | 2,661,218 | 4,946,168 | 73,773,362 | 1,239,582 | 864,524 | 51,882,873 | 242,766,246 | | 6% | | Increase/Decrease | (277,375) | 3,491,186 | 90,322 | 3,615,881 | (689,213) | (943,853) | 91,307 | (2,545,008) | 50,769 | 108,298 | 1,069,076 | 4,061,391 | | | | 2,012 | 3,422,216 | 94,069,934 | 231,213 | 11,867,918 | 2,005,484 | 2,661,090 | 5,705,484 | 75,879,254 | 1,234,992 | 721,496 | 52,964,689 | 250,763,769 | 56,260,000 | 7% | | Increase/Decrease | 1,090,810 | 5,205,515 | (61,096) | (2,362,661) | 325,678 | (128) | 759,316 | 2,105,893 | (4,591) | (143,028) | 1,081,816 | 7,997,523 | | | | 2,013 | 3,319,215 | 92,398,641 | 190,398 | 10,044,818 | 2,181,459 | 2,456,779 | 7,411,026 | 75,299,261 | 1,201,247 | 741,341 | 53,789,284 | 249,033,469 | 56,617,000 | 10% | | Increase/Decrease | (103,001) | (1,671,293) | (40,815) | (1,823,100) | 175,975 | (204,311) | 1,705,542 | (579,993) | (33,745) | 19,845 | 824,594 | (1,730,301) | 357,000 | | | Total Inc/Decrease | 49,215 | 16,541,411 | (118,102) | (4,446,132) | (1,095,541) | (395,221) | 1,566,126 | 1,219,794 | (140,831) | 59 | (2,402,216) | 10,778,562 | (4,190,000) | | | Percentage Change | 1.5% | 21.8% | -38.3% | -30.7% | -33.4% | -13.9% | 26.8% | 1.6% | -10.5% | 0.0% | -4.3% | 4.5% | -6.9% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Okay.. so 10.78 myn acre increase on those crops above.. including 16.5 myn to corn.. minus 4.19 OUT of Hay.. (there's the Hay.. ) and Soybean Double Cropping DOUBLES.. (double the double.. ) and there's 3.826 myn of the OTHER part of the puzzle.. So 10.78 - 4.19 Hay - 3.826 Double the double.. (hmm wonder if that will fall this year?) = 2.76.. Does THAT come out of the CRP..?!? "Fear the Steer" Indeed.. That a BULL.. Horn's prevail in Austin... This could be the START of a good run..;-) Let's see if this little steer can grow? edit: Credit to BShull for the chart above.
Edited by JonSCKs 2/1/2014 17:56
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Soybean Double Crop acres up 3.826 myn acres since 2006
