I have the powerpoint presentations from the "Managing Drought Conference" that I attended last week.  This is Gary McManus the State Climatologist from Oklahoma's presentation:

http://drought.unl.edu/Portals/2/Ranchplan%20Images/Presentations/1_9_2014/McManus.pdf


My comments are that the Southern High Plains had moisture relief from a somewhat wetter fall which allowed the establishment of a wheat stand in most locations.. however looking at the sub-soil.. page 37 makes the outlook "tenious."  We will need precip to bring this crop to establishment and yield.


The next powerpoint is from Klaus Wolter who gives more of a forecast going forward..

http://drought.unl.edu/Portals/2/Ranchplan%20Images/Presentations/1_9_2014/Wolter.GardenCity2014.pdf       


I have talked about the PDO AMO Ocean temperature impact which we entered a new pattern in about 2006 which doesn't bold well for "normal" precipitation.. here in the plains.  He covers that starting on page 20.


Klaus is the one who stressed that the problem for us has been the ABSENCE of an El Nino.. and that we are OVERDUE for it's re-appearance.  At this time the ENSO cycle is Neutral.. but the models project towards the re-appearance of an El Nino later in the year. 

The NOAA contact that I have been in touch with though.. says he would be VERY SURPRISED if an El Nino reappeared that quickly and cautioned that the models tend to over forecast EL Nino's return (page 10).  In order to see an El Nino we need a Nino 3.4 reading of + 0.5 for 5 consecutive months amongst other things to occur..  Currently it is -0.5.. and would need to make a major movement in order to trigger.. which it can/could but we need to see moisture pumping into this region before spring.. our highest chances for precip.. and given the current situation..  Not seeing a lot of moisture coming across Southern California into the SW.. (especially as dry as Cali is..)  This is MY understanding from our discussions.. and I may not be 100% accurate.. aka I'm sure it's a lot more complex than what I am saying.. but I believe I have his summary "close."

They do a weekly update of the ENSO cycle..


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


which as of the last update, January 13th, the Nino 3.4 weekly reading was -0.5.. which if it would stay there for the next 5 months would trigger a La Nina..  However, I believe that value jumps around quite a bit.. so I believe the forecasters caution not to read too much into one week's reading..    


You can look through Klaus's presentation for what a La Nina would look like.. (He gives both results with La Nina mostly on the right of the screen)     


fwiw.