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| Since the bull has not been fed in the markets the last cpl wks, it seems that all hope is lost and the crash to $5.00 corn seems inevetable... if you do a search of the market forum between christmas and new years in 2011, 2010, and 2009, the exact same emotions come out, the feared catylist is always different, but the continual fear is the end of profitability is near. Also, looking back through the last 3 years, there has been in each year, someone saying "I locked in $x.xx for new crop cause it seems like a good prices if things go to crap" and unfortunately most of those prices are at a pretty good discount to what they could have sold at 60 days later. I am definately not trying to say these ppl made bad decisions, or the market is incapable of an immediate tailspin, however i am its becoming apparent that the average marketer needs to be aware of these seasonal emotions on this page, Its funny, but i can see where a guy can get swayed - I stream the market open and close on KFRM radio on my computer. the close yesterday..... there was a well known market advisor named "Mark", and his last name was a precious metal. he was in the dumps on the grains, and from his sighs and demeanor, made me feel like i needed to retreat to the bomb shelter.
I for one, am looking forward to marketing in 2013.
- inventories are historically tight
- livestock has been profitable and corn rationiong by livestock sector has not happened yet
- crude has had a big up move recently
- dryness in central plains is not being alleviated
- per ag resouce group's monday morning update our prices are now competitive with baltic sea and brazilian corn
I have a hard time beleiving that the market takes much creedence into the 100 mil acres of corn that has been forecasted. if so... why is dec 13 corn futures still within 10% of its 52 wk high? also, how come the july 4th gap hasnt been filled yet? i beleve the market still beleives that there is alot of risk that still needs to be dealt with. | |
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The seasonals of the market talk page
