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| Sure we all want better prices, but we are only entitled to get the price we decided to sell at. We grow a commodity and the market for commodities wants cheap and plentiful and could care less where it comes from.
There may be a few here that are expecting constant wages with benefits and those folks will eventually exit farming, but most of us like what we do even if it's challenging and/or frustrating. Trump isn't our problem any more than USDA reports, weather reports, currency fluctuations between countries or another factors that influence the trade. There is always going to be something that moves the market. Trade policy is constantly being changed regardless of the existence of trade talks - Russia doesn't like paylean, EU decides only their domestic gmos are ok and not ours, china changes things all the time. Nothing new.
We have been growing big crops lately and our carryover has increased so that should put downward pressure on price, but not necessarily and we had some great prices earlier this year. Generally though our expectation should be that the oversupply will either need a lot more demand or a lower price to get eaten up. As it turns out, a lower price also increases demand. Unless something is very attractively priced, this isn't the time to 'double down' on expansion or investment (even if the magazines say you should).
The bottom line is not to be surprised by our economics but do your best to stay in business and don't worry about the other guy. The high flyers come and go and unless you want their bills and troubles, probably better just to pray for them. There will always be large farms built on generations of folks not spending all the money on 'family living'. You'll notice most of them generally don't have brand new equipment or escalades. While you can't change your history, you can keep costs in check now.
This isn't doom and gloom, it's just business. | |
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One good thing about all the tariff talk.
