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| While we all understand that crop weather is supposedly "random" from year to year, we also know that it's periodic. That is to say,while we can't predict which individual year we'll have a bad year, we know that sooner or later we'll have one.
Why is that important? A few years ago, I did an analysis of the effect of El Nino/La Nina on Corn Belt crop weather. It's buried somewhere on my old computer so I won't take time to dig it out.
But, my conclusion at the time was, bad crop years were more associated with the transition from La Nina to Neutral than to La Nina itself. As JonSwK pointed out the other day, this is precisely our current situation, transition from La Nina to Neutral. I'm not saying we'll have a bad year but I am saying that the probability of one is better than it's been in several years.
Now whether it's playing cards or gambling on crop weather it's not a good idea to make a bet when the probabilities against you are higher than average. | |
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