Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Below is a frequency analysis of the difference between the monthly estimates and their final. The first chart shows how often the difference between the Aug estimate and the final USDA yield is less than or greater by increments of 1 bushel between -11 bushel and + 13 bushel. You can see that they underestimated their final yields in Aug 23 times and overestimated yields 16 times. They overestimated yields in 1983 & 1993 by 18.8 & 15.3 bushel respectively, not shown. The second chart shows how their estimate rapidly approaches their final yield in the succeeding months when they are usually within a couple of bushel either way.
In conclusion, they more often than not underestimate their final yields early but on some rare occasions they overestimate the final.
 (freq aug-final-page-001.jpg)
 (freq aug to nov-page-001.jpg)
Attachments
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 freq aug-final-page-001.jpg (53KB - 16 downloads)
freq aug to nov-page-001.jpg (61KB - 13 downloads)
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Since 1974....the USDA
