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Well, IL boys, how much of this swing is out there?
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mdech
Posted 9/5/2017 13:55 (#6230444 - in reply to #6230405)
Subject: RE: Well, IL boys, how much of this swing is out there?


Northwest IL Jo Daviess Co
I will get flamed for this but here goes - I have traveled the midwest all summer from Colorado to eastern Ohio. I do not even see a 155 average yield. Everything near a pivot looks great - and it should to get 12 inches of sprinkler rain in drought conditions. But even on pivots - getting 220 ,but expecting 250 makes it tough. Now I know that the USDA is going to say what they will say. Northern IL looks pretty good, but the rest I have seen in IL is no where near 200. Grew up in Christian Co IL and I went there recently for a funeral - no way are they going to make 190. They have to avg 240-250 for a National Average to even break 160. There is a lot of very poor stands from the wet spring, and lots of weed problems from early wet weather and ineffective chemical control. Beans are really suffering as well - I have 100 acres of 2.2 beans that will be ready to cut in 10 days - they looked good earlier, but there are no beans in the top 5-8 pods on the plants due to cool dry weather. Plus, white mold is taking its toll on my beans. I think my beans might make 40, but I was expecting 55 + . All farming is an economy of scale, conditions, and land fertility. I have hilly, rocky, clay soils that need the right conditions to raise a good crop. Plus, this deficit of late summer rain will set up a dry winter which will further make us lose soil moisture. Below zero with no snow will suck the soil dry. Setting up a future drought condition. It is a lot uglier long term.
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