moline illinois | Centuryfarm - 7/30/2017 14:58
Conditions rating for this time of the year are the exact same they where in 2011. At that time they where at 62 good to excellent. In 2011 they where 62?good to excellent. We where 10 under trend in 2011. If we are 10 under trend this year we will have a158 crop. If my math is correct carryout would be around 1 billion. Why aren't we rallying? What am I missing?
You have to remember 3 things. The government conspiracies to maintain a global price war and cheap food policy to make growers produce more as the only means for survival. It's a matter of national security. So they are going to make sure end users can steal the 2016 crop. Gross corn revenue on a dollars per acre basis for 2016 will be lower than the 3 previous years, even with that huge crop. Nice reward for doing a good job guys! But, there will be a new hybrid or spray come out to help us grow more bushels just like the USDA wants.
The Government always knows the exact amount of our carryover and production. They are always right. Because they make sure they're right. No one can dispute them because the trade follows there word. No matter what really is out there.
The only time futures are traded in future is if it is to the negative side. As you stated above, this should be in consideration, but it's not. The tiny carry minus basis doesn't reflect any of it. Basis is still wide even months out, I can't believe theres that much on the books all ready out there. But they need to get this cheep for a few more months.
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Why doesn't it bother the trade.
