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Central South Dakota | I agree with your thoughts that it may be a tad early for a rally yet. I guess I should expand on my thoughts. I'm thinking a lackluster winter wheat crop takes some bushels off the books. Wheat has been priced so cheap that my guess is a lot of those guys grazed if they could, will take what they can get for grain off it and didn't apply a pile of fertilizer because of pricing when they made their decision.
If the southern winter wheat crop comes in sub 11% protein a second year in a row, Hard Red Spring Wheat with protein becomes a lot more valuable IMHO. Where else are they going to find the protein they need to make their baking blends. Spring Wheat was priced cheap enough this spring, there wasn't a lot of incentive to plant anymore than you had to because corn or beans showed the potential for more income than wheat.
Winter wheat in our area is toast. We are dry enough I figure the spring wheat has a couple weeks left, the corn not a lot more than that and I don't know if we would have enough soil moisture to germinate sunflowers without planting them so deep they would run out of steam before making daylight.
Anyone that lives here knows the majority of the wheat belt is probably 50-60 miles either side of the river in SD and we are dry and western and central North Dakota is too. If the spring wheat crop gets toasted, I think the funds will be forced to cover Spring Wheat leads and any high pro spring wheat and high pro winter wheat becomes a lot more valuable.
JMHO, maybe I'm clear off in left field with my thoughts. Good luck too, because the forecast isn't looking very favorable for us. | |
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Thoughts from the Anderson's grain
