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Tick Tock Tick Piggy's
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jpartner
Posted 2/15/2017 07:16 (#5840847 - in reply to #5840196)
Subject: RE: Tick Tock Tick Piggy's


Sat - 2/14/2017 20:12 ........... You can see things started lower pretty slow near 70.80 You can see there was no one big sell orders hit, no one big boy stop hit and or large sellers. You also see the time stamp 10:46 and 45 second is nearly half of this chart. Most of that crazy selling was done in 1 second. NO human being can re-act in that time frame this is why I said "HFT Flash Crash" which blows out sell stops under the market of real traders......

Hi Sat,

Well. You maybe right, but I would like to offer another idea.  You know my opinion on HFT, they are liquidity makers, not "vacuum creators" like whales, and I struggle a bit with why they would screw around with 1's and 2's in the hog pit with super computers, million dollar trading floors, dedicated expensive feeds and not be crude, index, bonds, where they can do 1000 lots, 10000 lots, etc,....Kind a like owning a 36 row planter on a deere track to plant one five acre field of corn,  but think about this scenario for a second.  Let's say there is a resting or stop order of 100 in the market at 70.725. It get tripped because the market trades at say 70.70.  So immediately it becomes a market order to sell 100.  But, the market has no liquidity because..well, its hogs and not the bond market, AND everybody and their dog can see that if those intraday double bottoms are taken out at 70.75 there is nothing below. It's free air.  So now the market has to sell 100, gets 1 at 70.70. two at 70.675, two at 70.65, 5 at .625, so forth and so on - and each of those is a tick on your chart,....until it trades at below 70.60.  It still has say 25 on the original market order to fill, and now it triggers the stops of the weak longs that got long with a "tight stop" in the last two days thinking it was a low, AND, the breakout sellers orders too all parked below that level.   So now, there is nothing but sellers, literally a price vacuum, no buyers anywhere because there is no support on the chart.  Eventually, the sell orders run out, and price runs into enough resting buy orders and market slows and turns.  So the market accomplished the same task just based on the resting orders in the market...no conspiracy, no HFT, no whale. Just no buyers, and trapped longs.  This can very easily happen in a market with the liquidity of hogs - in this type of formation, and you see it everyday in the intradays, and you can see them in the dailies.  This is ABSOLUTELY nothing new.   "Time" - one second in this case - would be no different direct proportion of  the same move happening in a week on the corn chart, after the same formation that lasted two months.   Price ended up doubled the range, "As above, so Below".  The great Archimedes saw this 2500 years ago.  The sloped lines of Andrews went "blue to blue".     Take away the "one second" and instead have an 35 tick chart, and it was business as usual..  Fast bars for the hog pit yes, but there is nothing new and unusual.

Take this formation, invert it and look around...You don't need to look any further than the soy complex to see the exact same thing, in a different context that resulted in the same result but higher this time - only it did not happen in one second, it happened over months.   There are 10's of thousands of these formations.  The longer you store energy, the more energy it has, and the longer it will take to expend it..... but "longer" isn't necessarily a function of time, that a human concept programmed into a computer to tell it that one bar is over and start another. 

Take Care

 



Edited by jpartner 2/15/2017 07:41
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