Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Your idea is that the US would capture that portion of the South American corn exports that would normally go to some other importer is based on the assumption that Brazil has only a limited amount of corn to export. It's possible that it might be that way the first year or two but remember Brazil has very substantial undeveloped agricultural potential. It's just as likely Brazil would rapidly expand their production to meet the new demand and still satisfy their previous customers.
Keep in mind, as SAT is ever wont to remind us, the story of the Port of Wilmington, NC. which was upgraded deliberately to import South American corn so as to be leverage against the railroads even though it makes little sense to import corn from SA given supplies available in the Midwest. Once those new port facilities and business arrangements are built it's not that easy to reverse. In any major business I've ever studied, they work very hard to prevent any competitor from establishing even the smallest foothold.
In WWII, Rommel understood correctly that the only chance Germany had was to prevent the Allies from making a successful landing. The Germans failed because Hitler second-guessed his generals. It was a close thing. As it was, only one German division fought effectively at Omaha beach and if the results there were any indication, given comparable resistance at the three other beaches, the invasion would have failed at the water's edge. It was a closer thing than we are led to believe. Eisenhauer even had a statement prepared in advance, taking the blame for the failed invasion.
As for you idea that reciprocal tariffs can't hurt us twice? Well, our tariff will hurt our consumers and their tariff will hurt our producers. That's not to say that the Mexicans won't feel it too but remember people and nations quite often take actions which aren't necessarily in their best interest, are even quite harmful for reasons of honor and dignity. Remember what Thucydides said: " Nations go to war for honor, fear and interest". Often in that order.
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Mexico and Corn
