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JonSCKs
Posted 1/20/2017 10:03 (#5781174 - in reply to #5781106)
Subject: Not ENOUGH Wheat acres..


All Wheat at 45.68.. My rough draft S/D table was using 48 myn acres.. 2.32 myn MORE.. while cutting ending carryout by over 300 myn.. if this survey is TRUE then you could trim another ??? whatever the yield is on the harvested acres.. Again I assume with the WIDE BASIS a HIGHER THAN NORMAL GRAZE OUT in Cattle country.. so say harvested becomes.. historically 87% harvested.. 45.68 x .87 =39.74 - 1 myn additional graze out = 38.74 x say you get as high as the 47.1 in the data set (last year was an aberation..) 1,867.. but again it's not all up..  what if you only get 15/16's 43.6 = 1,729..???

Or even a late freeze..???

Does a person really wanna hedge in this environment.. in the "fill the peaks.. spread the valley's school of marketing..."  This would appear to be a valley.. with the next opportunity in distant $5 to $6 expected futures offerings.. later this fall..

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use  1/    
                 
 2012/132013/142014/152015/16 Est2016/17 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.  
               JanJon SCKs 
   Million Acres     
Area Planted55.356.256.85550.245.68
Area Harvested 48.845.346.447.343.939.74
   Bushels   
Yield per Harvested Acre46.247.143.743.652.645.8
   Million Bushels   
Beginning Stocks7437185907529761186
Production225221352026206223101820
Imports123169151113125130
  Supply, Total311830212768292734103136
Food945955958957963965
Seed737779676169
Feed and Residual370223114152225258
  Domestic, Total138812551151117712491292
Exports101211768647759751000
  Use, Total240024312015195222242290
Ending Stocks7185907529761186844
  CCC Inventory000000
  Free Stocks7185907529761186844
Avg. Farm Price   ($/bu )  2/7.776.875.994.893.75 - 3.853.95 - 5.05


Dec KC is just a bit under $5.. headed to.. $6..??  $6.50..??  $7.00??

Looks like a wet spring coming... again some are comparing 2017 to 2011...???

 






Edited by JonSCKs 1/20/2017 10:09
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