All Wheat at 45.68.. My rough draft S/D table was using 48 myn acres.. 2.32 myn MORE.. while cutting ending carryout by over 300 myn.. if this survey is TRUE then you could trim another ??? whatever the yield is on the harvested acres.. Again I assume with the WIDE BASIS a HIGHER THAN NORMAL GRAZE OUT in Cattle country.. so say harvested becomes.. historically 87% harvested.. 45.68 x .87 =39.74 - 1 myn additional graze out = 38.74 x say you get as high as the 47.1 in the data set (last year was an aberation..) 1,867.. but again it's not all up.. what if you only get 15/16's 43.6 = 1,729..???
Or even a late freeze..???
Does a person really wanna hedge in this environment.. in the "fill the peaks.. spread the valley's school of marketing..." This would appear to be a valley.. with the next opportunity in distant $5 to $6 expected futures offerings.. later this fall..
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 Est | 2016/17 Proj. | 2017/18 Proj. | | | | | | Jan | Jon SCKs | | | | | Million Acres | | | | | | Area Planted | 55.3 | 56.2 | 56.8 | 55 | 50.2 | 45.68 | Area Harvested | 48.8 | 45.3 | 46.4 | 47.3 | 43.9 | 39.74 | | | | Bushels | | | | Yield per Harvested Acre | 46.2 | 47.1 | 43.7 | 43.6 | 52.6 | 45.8 | | | | Million Bushels | | | | Beginning Stocks | 743 | 718 | 590 | 752 | 976 | 1186 | Production | 2252 | 2135 | 2026 | 2062 | 2310 | 1820 | Imports | 123 | 169 | 151 | 113 | 125 | 130 | Supply, Total | 3118 | 3021 | 2768 | 2927 | 3410 | 3136 | Food | 945 | 955 | 958 | 957 | 963 | 965 | Seed | 73 | 77 | 79 | 67 | 61 | 69 | Feed and Residual | 370 | 223 | 114 | 152 | 225 | 258 | Domestic, Total | 1388 | 1255 | 1151 | 1177 | 1249 | 1292 | Exports | 1012 | 1176 | 864 | 775 | 975 | 1000 | Use, Total | 2400 | 2431 | 2015 | 1952 | 2224 | 2290 | Ending Stocks | 718 | 590 | 752 | 976 | 1186 | 844 | CCC Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Free Stocks | 718 | 590 | 752 | 976 | 1186 | 844 | Avg. Farm Price ($/bu ) 2/ | 7.77 | 6.87 | 5.99 | 4.89 | 3.75 - 3.85 | 3.95 - 5.05 |
Dec KC is just a bit under $5.. headed to.. $6..?? $6.50..?? $7.00??
Looks like a wet spring coming... again some are comparing 2017 to 2011...???
Edited by JonSCKs 1/20/2017 10:09
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