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South Central Iowa | Anyone know their track record?
I will look for it.
Edit:
Farm Futures Survey Estimate 2017 : Corn - 90.49 Soy - 90.52 the first time since 1983 that soybeans would top corn, however insignificant of a difference that is though.
These are FF January survey (2013 March) and in parenthesis are the planting intentions numbers from USDA. These are intentions, not later acre numbers, the report from March 31.
2016 Corn - 89.5 (93.6) Soy - 82.2 (82.2)
2015 Corn - 88.5 (89.2) Soy - 88.3 (84.6)
2014 Corn - 92.2 (91.7) Soy - 82.3 (81.5)
2013 Corn - 97.4 (97.3) Soy - 79.1 (77.1)
2012 Corn - 93.6 (95.9) Soy - 74.9 (73.9)
FF was spot on with USDA soybean projections in 2016, but were higher in the four prior years by an average of 1.93 million acres and a hi-lo of 3.9 and 0.8 million acres. Corn was more balanced, being higher in two years and lower in three. The higher years missed by an average of 2.37 million acres and the lower years missed the insignificant average of 0.3 million acres. Overall, FF's January survey over the prior five years has been high on soybeans by 1.54 million acres and low on corn by 1.30 million acres.
If the average deviation holds, would be 91.79 million acres and soybeans would be 88.98 million acres of soybeans, a spread in favor of corn of 2.81 million acres.
Easy to remember? With 5 year error:
Corn - 91.8 million acres
Soy - 89.0 million acres
Edited by Conan the Farmer 1/20/2017 10:12
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Farm Futures
