Getting all bulled up.. ( and carried away..??)  I posted this below and will repeat it here..

say we harvest.. 38 myn acres of wheat x 40 bushel yields.. = 1,520 myn bushel crop vs last years.. 2,310.. down 790 myn bushels..

and carryout of.. 1,143 drops to..  1,143 + 1,520 crop + 100 imports = 2,763 stocks - 965 domestic - 75 seed - 175 fed (because the ground piles are junk..) and exports actually hold firm as (ought oh) buyers scramble to buy before prices go even higher.. - 1015 = 533 carry out

so we cut ending carryout in half... 1,143 to 533 47% of the year before...

Maybe a stretch but I can see it droping below 750..  Marty did you catch US Farm Report this weekend?

Florez is getting bullish.. "Big bad bear market since 2012 is nearing it's end.. South American Weather is not as good as advertised.."

( http://www.agweb.com/usfr/marketing-roundtable/ )
 
Last year Brazil came up 3 mmt's of beans and

the MARCH towards HUGE WONDERFUL SOUTH AMERICAN Yields.. which ALSO occurred this time last year.. when we LATER find out that they Lost 18 mmt's Year on Year..

( https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf )

page 22

Production from Brazil 85 mmt's in Crop Year 2014/15

Production from Brazil 67 mmt's in Crop Year 2015/16 down 18 mmt's yoy

A YEAR AGO the 12/9/15 WASDE had Brazilian Corn Production estimate was..

( http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/wasde//2010s/2015/wasde-12-09-2015.pdf )

Production from Brazil 81.5 mmt's in Crop Year 2015/16 Proj.

That's a 14.5 mmt miss.. or 570 million bushels...

The soybean market sold off today on the expectations of a LARGE South American Crop coming...

???

So how did they do on Soybeans.. 12/9/15 WASDE

Production from Brazil was projected as 100 mmt's

on Last months results.. 

Production from Brazil was 96.5 mmt's.. so better.. but still a 3.5 mmt miss. 

Are we getting a little ahead of ourselves here?