So say the drought talk for 2017 is real..

90 bu dryland western Ks wheat does.. 15 bu this year.. assuming it emerges..


 

The carrot to SAVE Wheat from being grazed is sent too late.. they would have to START NOW btw... as the cattle are already out there..

and say we get a wet late spring on top of everything else up north.. just like 2011.. and we don't get the spring wheat in..

thus..

say we harvest.. 38 myn acres x 40 bushel yields.. = 1,520 myn bushel crop vs last years.. 2,310.. down 790 myn bushels..

and carryout of.. 1,143 drops to..  1,143 + 1,520 crop + 100 imports = 2,763 stocks - 965 domestic - 75 seed - 175 fed (because the ground piles are junk..) and exports actually hold firm as (ought oh) buyers scramble to buy before prices go even higher.. - 1015 = 533 carry out

so we cut ending carryout in half... 1,143 to 533 47% of the year before...

???

I could see that happening.