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S Illinois | Not sure where you are getting a conspiriacy theory on unknown sales or cancellations. If you are following many of the market analysts, they know less about exports than most. Many of the exports are handled by companies say similar to adm and cargill. These companies know what roughly what countries needs are and as such will buy to supply that demand. They have no need to declare a country to be shipped to until actual shipping occurs. Somewhere around 90+% of unknown sales become destination sales. Destination sales are how unknown sales are transferred to actual countries. If all you look at is the weekly summary then you will be led astray every time.
No cancellations are not a risk at this time other than from those needing to fill space on a blog. But hey might as well start selling beans at 8 because SA will never allow us to export beans again and will continue to grow exponentially despite facing poor economic conditions and extremely high interest and input cost. Funny how an economic/banking squeeze can cripple US growers, but yet even worse conditions being faced by SA producers causes them to expand. Unfortunately the sell beans all last winter because they are going lower didn't work any better than the grow and bin it guys.
Hopefully JNL will have something to add. He is likely the most well versed in exports there is on here. | |
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Contract 2017 Beans?
