I was asked to comment on intended wheat acreage below.. I figured I'd start a new thread on this as it is very topical right now.

Nationally we cut wheat sowings by a little over 5 million acres last year.. from 54.6 myn in 2015 to 49.6 myn after a 2 myn acre cut the year before from 56.8 in 2014.

Right now.. DTN's National average Cash Corn price is a penny better than the National Average HRW wheat price at $3.12 for corn vs $3.11 for wheat.  Which begs the question:  
Why would you plant ANY wheat?

Here locally Corn is still $.05.. $..10 to as much as $.20 higher per bushel than wheat.. and in fact there are a few localized prices where even SORGHUM was/is higher than wheat.

Anecdotally I've heard stories of large operations.. "we planted about 5,000 acres of wheat last year.. NOT planting ANY this year.. for 2017."  although I haven't seen that personally.. but heard the stories..

Locally most are probably going to reduce acres.. we'll be down probably about 15 to 20%  (got the seed.. pretty cheap to plant..) but we are reducing our irrigated acreage and I'm still working on my stubble back from 2016 dryland corn acres.. but.. that will not emerge without moisture so...???

I see these "stubble back" / "double crop" acres as being the big driver.. as for us they can yield anywhere from Zero to 45.. 50 bushels depending upon rainfall.. the drought monitor just came out.. and all the talk is the drought in ths South East US.. as well as California.. but I also am keeping an eye on South West Kansas down into the Texas panhandle which Cranked out UNHEARD OF Yields this year with some DRYLAND fields topping 100 bushels to the acre.. that area has been "flush" with soil moisture.. but as I noted this weekend.. "La Nina like" that may be changing..  Dodge City hit 101 degrees yesterday an all time record especially for October with sustained winds and low humidity.. we are depleting top soil moisture supplies rapidly..

 

The other big change has been the Sorghum acreage.. states such as Arkansas switched a lot of Corn acres into Sorghum in 2015 to chase 2014's Sorghum premium vs Corn.. which has gone away..  and hence Arkansas switched back..

( http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan-03-3... )

However, in states like Kansas.. those sorghum acres came from Wheat most likely.. and given the weather outlook.. will probably summer fallow this next year for wheat sowing for the 2018 crop year.  Sorghum acreage was down.. as are Sorghum exports.. as China is trying to reduce it's corn stockpiles..  However, Cotton prices are seeing a little firmness.. and I suspect that Cotton acres will eat into Sorghum acres in the South... AND given that Mexico is starting to use Sorghum in a big way to make Ethanol.. Mexico is quietly picking up some.. (certainly not ALL.. but some..) of the slack left by China..

So there will continue to be a need for Sorghum.. as the crop acreage shifts get made.. and new rotations established..  Hereford Texas was bidding $3.99 last night for corn.. you could have got filled on $4.00 corn if you left the order.. and whether they use Corn or Sorghum.. that market will remain firm.. especially if the Panhandle flexes to more Cotton next year.. which I would expect as of now.

.. coupled with lower yields.. sorghum harvest is underway here.. and it's not as bad as feared.. but.. "seen better" also.. from 45 to 110'ish is what I'm hearing.. maybe not quite as good as last year..  everyone is pretty.. "eh.. it's okay.. might get $$$ back.."  The sugarcane aphid has defintely added some complexity to a crop that you otherwise.. planted.. put a herbacide down.. then walked away until you checked to see if you needed to grease up the combine.. or not.

Some guys SAY that they were spraying about every 8 to 10 days.. others.. only a single pass.. some will NOT plant sorghum anymore.. others.. "just need to manage it.."

So that's a wild card.. but a manageble one I believe..

So what do I see?  More Cotton.. probably more Corn acres.. more Beans.. probably about the same on Sorghum.. and less wheat.. probably US Wheat acreage will fall to that 45 to 47 myn acre area.. but a LOT yet to be determined.. Spring wheat country could offset some of this expected decline (didn't last year..) or not...??

Again with the record warmth.. and challenging conditions for stand establishment.. I do not expect wheat acres to come easily in this environment.

fwiw.

later.