Posted 10/2/2016 08:54 (#5559617 - in reply to #5559200) Subject: RE:Capt. Kirk wasn't wrong, just wrong by ....
North Central Illinois
Your points are well taken and illustrate just how unpredictable the weather is. Anyone claiming to have a handle on it or special knowledge of what will happen is spitting into the wind. Kirk is a perfect example of how that can blow up in your face. I am not so sure that he was all that concerned with being right anyway. I think he was just hyping and pumping for all it was worth to sell subscriptions to farmers. I would be very surprised if he put his money where his mouth is and had a long position winter through summer. I'll bet he didn't lose any money on the deal unlike a lot of producers. Unfortunately many producers bought into what he was saying because he was telling them what wanted to hear. Big weather problems with $6 corn. Guys were buying into his shtick all winter and spring and then things turned a little dry in May and pretty dry in June for many. This had guys convinced that Kirk was leading them to the promised land. We saw a really nice rally in June based off of a little bit of weather and a lot of other things. Kirk's drought hype had guys scared to sell $4.50 corn and $11 beans. A lot of guys did take advantage of those prices but not nearly as much as they should have. By the way I will admit to being in the camp of selling a chunk but not nearly enough! I don't know that Bill Kirk is a bad guy I think we was just a little too full of himself and too willing to take people's money by putting fear into them. He might have been a year early with is prediction. The odds of five years in a row of big crops seem small to me.
Weather trends 360 advise
