Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | First, thanks FarmsUY for your contribution. Second, the remark included in the InfoCampo article: "“You’re gonna have corn being planted on city blocks.” (R7 Notícias)" is particularly timely in light of Dr. Cordonier's comments below. We need to take a longer view of the potential situation. Given the shortage of corn and high prices in South America producers there are very likely to increase corn acres next season at the expense of soybean acres. Talk about a "planting carrot"! What this means to us here in NA is: there very well may be plenty of export room for our soybean crop next fall and even the year after that. Our soybean crop this comming Nov. may be the largest source of soybeans for the next few years, especially if La Nina gets going good by the end of this year in SA.
And furthermore, we've been having 47-48 bu/A soybean crops for a couple three years now. What happens if we have even a little glitch in soybean yields this season. 86 M acres x 48 bu/A is 4.13 billion bushels, 86 M x 43 is 3.7 B bushels. Remember a 5 bu/A drop in soybean yield is 10% yield decline for soybeans (5/48). A 5 bu/A drop in corn yield is only a 3% decline for corn. And a 5 bu/A drop for soybeans wouldn't be unusual at all. In order to get a 10% decline in corn yields you would need 16.8 bu/A drop in yields, that doesn't happen so often. |
The South America Crop Report for May 23, 2016
