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Board of trade hater's what is your suggestion?
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dlerwick
Posted 5/14/2016 09:28 (#5300899 - in reply to #5300044)
Subject: RE: Board of trade hater's what is your suggestion?


Western Nebraska

I do know how the futures markets work.  I have studied them, and if you think for a moment that without them there wouldn't be price discovery or liquidity or that someone might be able to "corner" the market you aren't as well informed as you seem to think you are.  The problem with your argument is the assumption that what has been, should always be, or is even necessary.  The futures markets are not performing the much promised role of price discovery at the present time.  They certainly aren't smoothing the markets.  They are adding vastly more volatility to our markets. 

As to providing price discovery, why have there been times over the past few years that there is actually a basis at the delivery point?  According to all of the futures markets disciples the basis is only supposed to reflect the transportation costs to the delivery point.  We all can see with our own eyes and a little common sense that the market is clearly divorced from the futures market when we have a negative $1 basis, that suddenly jumps to negative .80 then down to .60 then back up to .90.  Fuel costs didn't change that drastically.  The basis is actually the reflection of where the cash market really is.

If the futures market was doing what you claim it is doing we wouldn't see several limit moves within a couple months on cattle.  That isn't market smoothing.  That isn't price discovery.  That isn't adding liquidity to the markets.  So why would a market that is representing a commodity that essentially takes a year to add new supply see frequent limit moves?  Is it because demand is fluctuating wildly?  That seems unlikely.  It is much easier to believe that the fundamentals of supply and demand have very little to do with actual market activity.  Of far more importance to the market at the present time are the "official USDA" reports.  Irregardless of whether those reports are accurate, or even half way credible the traders trade on them for a week or two as though they are direct from the lips of God himself.  Never remarked upon is the fact that nearly every report over the last several years has quietly been corrected after it is no longer traded on.  Not even weather forecasters could be as wrong as the USDA is and still keep their credibility.  At the present time the futures markets are broken.  A cash market without futures contracts is typically a very stable predictable market.  The problem with it is that in order to speculate in that market you actually have to take possession of the grain.  That tends to limit speculation.

Having a different opinion from the brightest and best doesn't necessarily mean I am wrong.  I have studied the futures markets and I also have had the experience of producing commodities not "protected" by the futures markets.  We don't need the futures contract to provide the liquidity required to make that cash market work and it is way more susceptible to being "cornered" than any corn, wheat, beans, cattle or hog market ever will be.  The crops that we raise without a futures contract also don't have any government programs they currently qualify under.  Despite those facts, they are our most profitable crops.  I have a different opinion than you do about the role of the markets largely informed by spending many years producing both traded and untraded commodities.  Having a different opinion than yours doesn't mean I am wrong, it means that my examination of the facts led me to a conclusion different than yours.  When Adam Smith wrote about the invisible hand of the marketplace he wasn't talking about the futures market.  The futures market is a relatively recent creation of the brightest and best designed to give people the illusion of feeling more secure in their business decisions all the while picking their pockets.

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