I gotta go.. but someone needs to pull Acreage Intentions by state.. x's.. say 92% (yes it would differ for each state but.. average is around .92 harvested..) x's yield..

N Dakota is like 140.. Ks is like 145.. especially on the years where we get a bump in dryland.. like this year is shaping up to be.. our state average yield is gonna take a hit on all the low yielding dryland bump in acreage.. last year's sorghum acreage on "stubble back."

Okay 93.2 myn x .92 = 85.74 harvested.. but we're NOT going to hit trend with so much of the added acreage as DRYLAND in the Plains.. aka the 2.4 myn acre stuff that AT BEST does maybe 2/3rd's of National average Trend..

What is that?

85.74 x 165 = 14.15'ish.. what was 2014?  14.2?  14.1..??

I still got to think with acreage shifts.. we come in around 13.8.. more than last year's 13.6.. but.. not 14.5.. unless the weather improves... ???

If it does.. "uh hum.. well...??"

but golly it sure doesn't look like it post El Nino.. (clinging too that aweful hard I know..)

later.. 

one last thing.. golly if all the work we've done looking at acreage the past couple years.. about THE ONLY thing that matters in the Corn belt is "Can they get it in?"  It's either CORN.. OR .. BEANS.. and it's very Stable.. this year we get a bump because LAST YEAR.. Mizzou.. S Illinois.. Indy.. etc got too wet and prevented planted out..

The SOUTH is a Wild Card.. Are they going Corn? Beans? Sorghum? Cotton? Rice..?  or what..??  They bounce around quite a bit.. and it's GOOD IRRIGATED production.. 200 bu corn stuff potential.. So that's a wild card..

and then the last Wild card is the fringe plains.. sure we may add a couple myn acres.. what's the stat?  Like 15 myn acres to Corn since 2005'ish...??? or something like that...

but production wise.. on my farm.. I've had 140 bu average dryland years (2014) .. and I've had 1 bu average dryland years.. (2011) our average is around.. 65'ish.. but it's eithr ON.. 85 bu plus.. or OFF.. 30 or under.. here.. and you just never know.. which it is gonna be.. 

2014 started out like this year.. had to plant almost 3" deep to find moisture... cool July.. with some moisture.. "viola"  All yall was saying I was Bipolar.. ( no comment..) but that's just the way it is.. FEAST or FAMINE.. on the plains..

So that's gonna move potential around quite a bit.. sounds like the Dakota boys are saying the heck with wheat.. if I'm gonna go for Broke.. might as well do it with something that has the POTENTIAL.. that COULD bushel out.. aka Corn.

maybe we hit?  Maybe we don't...???

maybe On farm stocks come down some more?  50 bu dryland corn in Kansas eh for 2015?  thunked it was more than that...

Oh the thing I meant to say.. is that with the SOUTH starting off so wet.. and a $.70 pop in Beans.. I bet maybe we've shifted a myn acres.. (between the South and everyone's reaction to report..) already..

Have we ALREADY lost a myn corn acres????