The ag recession IS already happening.  Farmdoc had a excellent article looking at the real prices of various inputs, as well as the real price of crops now as compared to the two previous down turns in ag.

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2016/03/factors-affecting-long-term-corn-soybean-prices.html

Unsurprisingly, a general pattern of real input price decline emerges in each period of large declines in real crop prices. Real prices for chemicals and, especially, fertilizer declined in all 3 periods. The real price of fuels declined the most of any input in the earliest and latest periods, but increased in the second period. Inflation-adjusted agricultural services and rents declined in the first two periods but has continued to increase during the current period. Rent is available as a separate input category since 1990. Real rent decreased by 18% in 1996-2001, but has increased by 14% in 2012-2015.