I agree about "wishing for drought" but my point is that there's not that much room between enough and not enough and there are several factors that don't have to change that much to make a big difference.
There is another factor that I failed to mention, government estimates. For instance, I've been trying to square the EIA's ethanol numbers with NASS's stocks numbers and I come up with the absurd result that feed for livestock in the 4th quarter declines to unbelievably low number and every correction I make (ie. DDG's wheat feeding etc.) doesn't begin to account for it. You're left with the conclusion that we use more of our so-called carryout than NASS says. Or to put it another way stocks are lower than advertised.