Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | No, I take that back. The more so-called "analysts" like him say things like that the more likely it will be just the opposite. For example, he says: "unless el nino switches to la nina and we burn up." Like it's some remote possibility! Since 1950 we've had sixteen strong el nino events. thirteen of the sixteen went on to be la nina. That's 81% probability. The latest ONI number hasn't been released yet but there is some preliminary evidence that el nino is beginning to collapse right on schedule.
Let me point out something to you fellows west of the Mississippi. Here, we have bare ground, the ground is thawing. The 4th of Feb and at this rate we'll be plowing a couple of weeks. You want to know when we lost the last foot of hard frozen snow last year, the third week of April. The ground here last year was froze 4 ft down in most places. I'm cutting hedge rows in a long sleeve shirt and sweating, in Feb.
This year is so much like 2012 that it's got me spooked. In 2012, I plowed most of March and was all plowed by April. We planted early and then what happened in June?
Think about it. We will supposedly have a 1.7-1.9 billion bushel carryout in Sept. We know that any carryout at or below 1.0 is major crisis. So 1.8-1.0 is 0.8 billion or 5% of our initial supply. Heck, suppose we plant 3 million fewer corn acres this year. That's 3/88.4 or 3.4% less. Will we? I don't know but it's certainly possible. Suppose our yield is 5% short. That's 8.4 bushel. Will it be? Again, I don't know but it is certainly possible.
Will any of the things that might limit our production a few percent possible? I don't know but any or all of them are a distinct possibility.
What I'm trying to say is: This guy Tom makes it seem inevitable but I'm trying to remind us that it's not.
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Market to market with Tom P
