| The ag news is all abuzz about "slowing ethanol demand".. and "growing ethanol stocks" when in reality gasoline supplied is also down.. probably due to the storms. Gasoline supplied came in this past week at 8.341 myn bbls per day.. down right at 700 k bbls per day from the Sept 1st Grain year average.. Consequently domestic blenders ethanol input also came in at 815 k bbls per day down 55 k bbls per day from the Sept 1st average of 870.8 k bbls per day which is STILL HIGHER than last year's 855.2 k bbls per day... as well as domestic ethanol blended is up 1.8% yoy.. Ethanol as a percentage of gasoline blended at 9.77% was actually the highest in ten weeks. Ethanol production of 959 k bbls per day was down as margins are tight and some plants have slowed or reduced production.. still year to date ethanol produced is up 2.6% We got the November ethanol exports at 1.45 myn bbls 67% of the estimated number that this spreadsheet projects.. the difference is...??? other usage.. or something..??? Still do not know.. Ethanol stocks continue their seasonal build and are not burdensome at 59% of (last time I checked..) storage capacity. Ethanol exports for the year are down but a large implied December number should put us ahead of 2014 Crop year. I expect gasoline demand.. and hence ethanol blended to rebound as things get back to normal post storms.. and hopefully see margins improve going forward. As we get into the summer driving season odds are that crude oil.. gasoline and ethanol will all be higher than they are today.. (and if not.. I'll always thunk they should have been...) | | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.78 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | 9/4/2015 | 958 | | 896 | | 0 | | 18,642 | 49% | | 113.4 | | 794 | | | 1009.4 | 101,314 | | | 9017 | 9.94% | | 9/11/2015 | 961 | | 878 | | 0 | | 18,291 | 48% | | 133.1 | | 932 | | | 1011.1 | 101,631 | | | 8983 | 9.77% | | 9/18/2015 | 938 | | 892 | | 44 | | 18,900 | 50% | | 3.0 | | 21 | | | 895.0 | 99,199 | | | 9215 | 9.68% | | 9/25/2015 | 943 | | 881 | | 0 | | 18,782 | 50% | | 78.9 | | 552 | 2,299 | 1,438 | 959.9 | 99,727 | | | 9021 | 9.77% | | 10/2/2015 | 950 | | 882 | | 17 | | 18,812 | 50% | | 80.7 | | 565 | | | 962.7 | 100,468 | | | 8958 | 9.85% | | 10/9/2015 | 949 | | 887 | | 0 | | 18,956 | 50% | | 41.4 | | 290 | | | 928.4 | 100,362 | | | 9137 | 9.71% | | 10/16/2015 | 951 | | 897 | | 0 | | 18,872 | 50% | | 66.0 | | 462 | | | 963.0 | 100,573 | | | 9157 | 9.80% | | 10/23/2015 | 944 | | 915 | | 0 | | 18,273 | 48% | | 114.6 | | 802 | | | 1029.6 | 99,833 | | | 9343 | 9.79% | | 10/30/2015 | 969 | | 884 | | 10 | | 18,774 | 49% | | 23.4 | | 164 | 2,283 | 1,796 | 907.4 | 102,477 | | | 9184 | 9.63% | | 11/6/2015 | 982 | | 868 | | 26 | | 18,854 | 50% | | 128.6 | | 900 | | | 996.6 | 103,852 | | | 9388 | 9.25% | | 11/13/2015 | 975 | | 870 | | 0 | | 19,249 | 51% | | 48.6 | | 340 | | | 918.6 | 103,112 | | | 9054 | 9.61% | | 11/20/2015 | 1008 | | 885 | | 0 | | 19,627 | 52% | | 69.0 | | 483 | | | 954.0 | 106,601 | | | 8921 | 9.92% | | 11/27/2015 | 956 | | 876 | | 36 | | 19,997 | 53% | | 63.1 | | 442 | 2,165 | 1,450 | 939.1 | 101,102 | | | 9281 | 9.44% | | 12/4/2015 | 993 | | 839 | | 0 | | 19,829 | 52% | | 178.0 | | 1246 | | | 1017.0 | 105,015 | | | 9420 | 8.91% | | 12/11/2015 | 1000 | | 890 | | 32 | | 20,322 | 54% | | 71.6 | | 501 | | | 961.6 | 105,755 | | | 9220 | 9.65% | | 12/18/2015 | 973 | | 880 | | 0 | | 20,387 | 54% | | 83.7 | | 586 | | | 963.7 | 102,900 | | | 9185 | 9.58% | | 12/25/2015 | 992 | | 907 | | 0 | | 20,166 | 53% | | 116.6 | | 816 | 3,149 | | 1023.6 | 104,909 | | | 9395 | 9.65% | | 1/1/2016 | 996 | | 787 | | 0 | | 21,099 | 56% | | 75.7 | | 530 | | | 862.7 | 105,332 | | | 8159 | 9.65% | | 1/8/2016 | 1003 | | 807 | | 0 | | 21,345 | 56% | | 160.9 | | 1126 | | | 967.9 | 106,073 | | | 8500 | 9.49% | | 1/15/2016 | 983 | | 856 | | 0 | | 21,940 | 58% | | 42.0 | | 294 | | | 898.0 | 103,958 | | | 9079 | 9.43% | | 1/22/2016 | 961 | | 865 | | 0 | | 21,436 | 57% | | 168.0 | | 1176 | | | 1033.0 | 101,631 | | | 8941 | 9.67% | | 1/29/2016 | 959 | | 815 | | 0 | | 22,362 | 59% | | 11.7 | | 82 | | | 826.7 | 101,419 | | | 8341 | 9.77% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3,722 | pace | | | | | | | | 15 to date | 970.2 | | 870.8 | | 7.5 | | 19769 | | | 85 | | 596 | 2724 | ?? | 956 | 102,602 | | | 9041 | | | 14 to date | 945.8 | | 855.2 | | 1.0 | | 18286 | | | 71 | | 500 | 2210 | 1822 | 927 | 100,024 | | | 8982 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2577.5 | | | | | | 15 vs 14 | 2.6% | | 1.8% | | | | 8.1% | | | 19.0% | | 19.0% | 23.2% | ?? | 3.1% | 2.6% | | | 0.7% | | | | | | 49760.0 | | | | Calendar Yr: | | 4678.3 | | 32748.0 | | 18154.0 | | | | | | | | | | | 14629.4 | | | | | | | gallons: | | 1375.42 | 32,844 | 23,649 | 72.0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 762.468 | | | | | | | | 2015 avg | 961.7 | | 873.0 | | | | | | | | | | | 1009.5 | pace | 101,707 | avg 2015 grind | | | | | 14.74 | | 13.38 | | | | | | | | | | | 1.010 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Cheers. |