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Ethanol update.. storm slows gasoline/ethanol usage
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JonSCKs
Posted 2/3/2016 18:40 (#5086034)
Subject: Ethanol update.. storm slows gasoline/ethanol usage


The ag news is all abuzz about "slowing ethanol demand".. and "growing ethanol stocks" when in reality gasoline supplied is also down.. probably due to the storms.  Gasoline supplied came in this past week at 8.341 myn bbls per day.. down right at 700 k bbls per day from the Sept 1st Grain year average.. Consequently domestic blenders ethanol input also came in at 815 k bbls per day down 55 k bbls per day from the Sept 1st average of 870.8 k bbls per day which is STILL HIGHER than last year's 855.2 k bbls per day... as well as domestic ethanol blended is up 1.8% yoy..  Ethanol as a percentage of gasoline blended at 9.77% was actually the highest in ten weeks.

Ethanol production of 959 k bbls per day was down as margins are tight and some plants have slowed or reduced production.. still year to date ethanol produced is up 2.6%  We got the November ethanol exports at 1.45 myn bbls 67% of the estimated number that this spreadsheet projects.. the difference is...???  other usage.. or something..???  Still do not know..

Ethanol stocks continue their seasonal build and are not burdensome at 59% of (last time I checked..) storage capacity.

Ethanol exports for the year are down but a large implied December number should put us ahead of 2014 Crop year.

I expect gasoline demand.. and hence ethanol blended to rebound as things get back to normal post storms.. and hopefully see margins improve going forward.  As we get into the summer driving season odds are that crude oil.. gasoline and ethanol will all be higher than they are today..  (and if not.. I'll always thunk they should have been...)

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.78conversion Ethanol as % of
9/4/2015958 896 0 18,64249% 113.4 794  1009.4101,314  90179.94% 
9/11/2015961 878 0 18,29148% 133.1 932  1011.1101,631  89839.77% 
9/18/2015938 892 44 18,90050% 3.0 21  895.099,199  92159.68% 
9/25/2015943 881 0 18,78250% 78.9 5522,2991,438959.999,727  90219.77% 
10/2/2015950 882 17 18,81250% 80.7 565  962.7100,468  89589.85% 
10/9/2015949 887 0 18,95650% 41.4 290  928.4100,362  91379.71% 
10/16/2015951 897 0 18,87250% 66.0 462  963.0100,573  91579.80% 
10/23/2015944 915 0 18,27348% 114.6 802  1029.699,833  93439.79% 
10/30/2015969 884 10 18,77449% 23.4 1642,2831,796907.4102,477  91849.63% 
11/6/2015982 868 26 18,85450% 128.6 900  996.6103,852  93889.25% 
11/13/2015975 870 0 19,24951% 48.6 340  918.6103,112  90549.61% 
11/20/20151008 885 0 19,62752% 69.0 483  954.0106,601  89219.92% 
11/27/2015956 876 36 19,99753% 63.1 4422,1651,450939.1101,102  92819.44% 
12/4/2015993 839 0 19,82952% 178.0 1246  1017.0105,015  94208.91% 
12/11/20151000 890 32 20,32254% 71.6 501  961.6105,755  92209.65% 
12/18/2015973 880 0 20,38754% 83.7 586  963.7102,900  91859.58% 
12/25/2015992 907 0 20,16653% 116.6 8163,149 1023.6104,909  93959.65% 
1/1/2016996 787 0 21,09956% 75.7 530  862.7105,332  81599.65% 
1/8/20161003 807 0 21,34556% 160.9 1126  967.9106,073  85009.49% 
1/15/2016983 856 0 21,94058% 42.0 294  898.0103,958  90799.43% 
1/22/2016961 865 0 21,43657% 168.0 1176  1033.0101,631  89419.67% 
1/29/2016959 815 0 22,36259% 11.7 82  826.7101,419  83419.77% 
             3,722pace       
15 to date970.2 870.8 7.5 19769  85 5962724??956102,602  9041  
14 to date945.8 855.2 1.0 18286  71 50022101822927100,024  8982  
                2577.5     
15 vs 142.6% 1.8%   8.1%  19.0% 19.0%23.2%??3.1%2.6%  0.7%  
   49760.0   Calendar Yr: 4678.3 32748.0 18154.0       
   14629.4      gallons: 1375.4232,84423,64972.0%      
              762.468       
2015 avg961.7 873.0          1009.5pace101,707avg 2015 grind   
 14.74 13.38          1.010       
                      

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Cheers.

 

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