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Ridgway, IL |
I have seen more positive basis opportunities in the first 30 days of this year than the last 120 days of 2015. Hell probably in the last half of 15. The market started getting "right" in my opinion in 15 when we built enough carry into the market to feed a fat steer for a month and even if it didn't gain a pound, it would net a positive return. Look at the market structure, we have inverted February over April a dollar, and more at times. The spot vs 2nd month spread structure has went from a -10 to +1.5.....in what? 60 days?
As of jan 21, weekly export sales of 122,000 mt vs LY at 115,900 MT. One more week and accumulated exports are higher than LY.
My line of thinking is that it was a combination of circumstances that made for high imports last year. Not the least of which, was a drought in Australia pushing their herd to 20 yr lows. It seems logical to me, that it's harder for them to keep up the pace than it was last year? That's my hypothesis :-) | |
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Cattle
