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An Economist you can understand, but do you want to?
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JonSCKs
Posted 11/29/2015 09:49 (#4926010 - in reply to #4925423)
Subject: Consumer Confidence fell..


Given that the US Economy re invented itself to become a large Crude Oil producer.. driving construction.. driving incomes.. driving manufacturing.. and as she notes.. this is over.

Where is the growth going to come from?

A lot of high income Oil producers have lost their jobs..  ( http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/11/17/worldwide-oil-job-losses-climb-t... ) estimates continue to grow to as many as 250,000 could lose their jobs in the energy sector.

This is going to impact the entire US Economy.  Is this the reason why consumer confidence fell?

( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/consumer-confidence-index-in-u-s-fell-to-90-4-in-november )

Consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in November to the lowest level in more than a year as Americans grew less enthusiastic about the labor-market outlook.

The Conference Board’s index slumped to 90.4, the lowest since September 2014, from a revised October reading of 99.1, the New York-based private research group said Tuesday. The November gauge was weaker than the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The cutoff date of the Conference Board’s survey was Nov. 12.

The share of Americans who see greater job availability in the next six months declined to the lowest level since October 2011, and more expect their incomes to decline. While consumers were less upbeat about the labor market, the report showed buying plans held up and suggested steady spending as the holiday-shopping season begins. 

"It will take longer to identify who the winners will be.."

yal no kidding.. 

No doubt some will benefit from lower energy prices.. but they will have to change perceptions that energy prices will REMAIN low before investing large sums into projects big enough to drive growth in the GDP..

Flip side we could go to $100 crude tomorrow on a middle east event..  so are we going to start bombing ISIS's Oil supply / money supply?

( http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/b8234932-719b-11e5-ad6d-f4ed76f0900a... )

I agree that it takes time to adjust to big moves in prices.. I'm not sure that I buy into the permanently lower energy prices..  Last week Turkey downed a Russian jet.. what happens this week?

Russia responds?  Cuts off Turkeys supply of wheat? 



Edited by JonSCKs 11/29/2015 09:49
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