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Chinese ethanol imports...hey Sat!
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JonSCKs
Posted 8/29/2015 14:15 (#4759539 - in reply to #4759469)
Subject: RE: Looking at the Data...


Sugar Cane is a perennial crop..  I get that..  The thing that I believe is underappreciated about the US Grain Ethanol model is that.. It works.. basically 365 days a year.. and it doesn't need to be sited next to the production fields.. Unlike Sugar Cane plants.in Brazil.

If you were going to site a plant.. with say a 50 year expected life.. the land base has to be sustainable to produce sugar.. which you will probably need a rotation.. even if you only break the cane cycle for a year..   There are plenty of area's in Brazil where this works.. not so much though in the US.. Hawaii, California, Tx, La, Florida.. etc..

The Sugar Cane Aphid is wrecking havoc in infected fields of Sorghum this year in Southern Kansas.. I don't know if Brazil faces a cataclysmic pest.. This pest is expensive to treat in Sorghum.. probably similar to what Corn Bore was/is for Corn.. the boll weavil was/is for Cotton.. etc..

50 years (or whatever the expected life of a multi millon dollar plant would be..) is a LONG time.. so you'd want to make sure that you can source the feedstock.

Again I'm sure that Brazil has several advantages here.. However, a destination grain plant here in the US.. can source corn from a field across the road or one over a thousand miles away.. and it still works.  A grain ethanol plant can even source feedstock from a terminal that has held grain from.. 2..3.. or even longer production cycles ago..  as long as it has been well maintained.

The US's advantage is that we already had.. grain storage terminals.. shuttle loaders/unloaders.. and demand for the waste/feed/by-products.

Our local ethanol plant utilizes it's shuttle loading capabilities along with it's grain storage to source and ship Wheat.. and Soybeans.. they even shipped a shuttle of Sorghum out last year..  Since Wheat harvest is during the offseason excess capacity is utilized more efficiently..  Wheat Harvest is ALL ABOUT packing bushels away QUICKLY.. as most operations are DONE within about a week.  So the ability to pack the bushels away.. and a shuttle loader/unloader has the fobbing capacity.. to do it.  aka.. I got a neighbor who.. will knock out about 1200 to 1400 acres of wheat per DAY.. during harvest.. and keep in mind from the elevator's perspective.. the rest of us are coming at him also.  Today's high capacity combines push elevator FOBBING Capacity to the Max.. here.. peak Wheat Harvest fobbing is higher than Peak Corn harvest fobbing.. just because of the acreage and the timeliness required to grow wheat in Kansas.

They have also just installed a combined heat and power (CHP) system..

( http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/5651/generating-power-at-th...

Next to corn, energy is the second most costly input for ethanol production. By using a combined heat and power system, an ethanol plant can produce electricity and steam with greater energy efficiency and reduce its carbon footprint.

By Susanne Retka Schill | May 04, 2009

Electrical power generation has long been recognized as highly inefficient. Two-thirds of the energy fueling the process is wasted as unused heat after high pressure, high temperature steam does its work. When the typical efficiency of electrical generation is added to the typical efficiency of a boiler system providing process heat to an ethanol plant, the combined efficiency is roughly 49 percent. Bringing the power generation to the ethanol plant and making use of the electrical generation's waste heat in a combined heat and power (CHP) system, boosts that efficiency to 75 percent. Increasing the efficiency of power and steam generation, in turn, reduces carbon emissions. 

The round-the-clock plant operations and steady steam and power load in ethanol plants make the industry a prime candidate for CHP systems. Bringing the power plant to the user means that the waste heat from electrical generation can be recovered for process heat. The system efficiencies and reductions in carbon emissions are impressive, and depending on a plant's fuel cost and electrical rates, can also provide cost savings to the ethanol plant

So the US model still has a lot of advantages going for us.. that's why despite the slower start.. we now have an industry that is twice the size of Brazil's.  

However, working together we can open new markets.. that will be beneficial.. no matter which model of ethanol production is employed..

( http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/12569/usgc-reports-progress-in-ethanol-export-promotion )

This marketing year’s U.S. ethanol exports are expected to be the second largest on record as ethanol export promotion efforts ramp up by the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) and its partners Growth Energy, the Renewable Fuels Association and USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. 

Efforts to promote increased exports of U.S. ethanol are showing progress, with global ethanol exports during the first 10 months of the current marketing year posting an 11 percent gain over last year’s numbers,” said USGC Chief Economist Mike Dwyer. “The Council now expects full year 2014/2015 ethanol exports to reach 850 million gallons and to be valued at $1.9 billion, up from 768 million gallons just last year.”

While 2015 exports of U.S. ethanol to Canada – the top international customer - are down 26 percent on a volume basis, all other major markets have shown increases due to strong demand and U.S. ethanol supplies that are competitively priced. 

The second and third largest importers, Brazil and the Philippines, have grown 71 percent and 44 percent respectively to 135 million gallons and 71.2 million gallons. India and the United Arab Emirates round out the top five export markets for U.S. ethanol.

Other markets seeing significant growth during the first 10 months of 2014/2015 include Korea, Mexico, the European Union and Tunisia.  


jmho.. 



Edited by JonSCKs 8/29/2015 14:41
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