That's been kind of the big debate.. we've been hashing it out the past couple of reports.  LAST YEAR what the WASDE allocated vs what the EIA reported was around 2.71 gallons per bushel..  However, per a survey or something.. IF/When you include the DENATURANT.. The conversions go up to around 2.81'ish..  I would assume that we are doing better over time.. that the poorer conversion plants are working on becoming more efficient.. etc.. heck aren't they all working on improved efficiency?

Now other complicating factors are that now we do have some cellulosic ethanol production.. although it is still pretty small..  Also we use sorghum from time to time.. which use to be a little cheaper before Chinese exports entered the picture.. so.. it would seem that surveyed statistics could be improved a bit in the future...??

Anyway.. per last year's WASDE... IF they overestimated the ethanol grind.. and the ending stocks number was correct.. then they underestimated some other demand item.. probably the feed (and residual..) which is what I've been assuming.. and feel that the June Stocks on Corn coming in lower then the trade expected verify's my hunch...

As Don's chart on Production shows.. the corn grind can vary quite a bit...  All in all for what we've been through.. Hurricane's Katrina/Rita in 2005 kicking off the Crude Spikes... turmoil in the Middle East pushing Crude to $140.. the Great Recession.. the Crash in Crude.. etc.. all in all.. we've come through pretty well.. and are operating at near capacity.. for the most part.. free of subsidies..

.. in other words..  It's working.

Heck we're even exporting ethanol.  My implied ethanol export number above used to track a little closer to the reported one from the EIA that comes out a couple month's later.. however,, for about the past year.. my number has been a lot higher...???  And yet stocks are falling.. so...???   not sure.. what's up with that.. ???

Something.. that I can not explain..???