Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | If you use the figures you outline above the total production comes in at 12.9 billion bushel. This is a barely adequate production even with a 1.8 billion carryout.
In addition, pretty much all the other states had above average yields last year. NY had 148 last year, I'll bet it doesn't make 120 this year. Pennsylvania will likewise be lower. That knocks a half a bushel off the national yield. The fact is that 160 is actually just about the expected yield given the typical results for the past ten years.
I personallly think it is quite remarkable that here we are only July 1st and the expected yield is 160 with the most critical period yet to come. Maybe the worse is behind us but somehow I don't think so. |