Since I laid all the ground work in the post above.. I'm gonna tack this update on here.  (sorry somewhat related to thread.. but more weather..)

Okay.. just got off the phone with one of my weather guru's.. and here is the latest..

"Basically not much has changed vs December."

"I Still got a BAD FEELING about late summer dryness ESPECIALLY in the NORTHERN PLAINS."

"We're transitioning.. coming OUT of the drought.. thanks somewhat to this El Nino..that is FINALLY here.. even though it's light.. and the  PDO/AMO trends.. However, the Northern Plains.. are now ENTERING the Trend.. and I got a BAD FEELING about 2016.. 17.. 18 etc for them.  Could be wrong.."

You talked about this AMO.. being Cold.. thus Wet.. flipping to warmer thus dryer in the US.. and most have grown up with it being cold.. thus wet.. NOW.. we're on the other side of that... since about 2000.. and again it's not the Absolute values but the Changes.. the CHANGE in the trends that matter..

"Exactly.. I don't believe the General Public gives us as much Credit for the changes in Agriculture as we deserve. No-till etc.. Conservation etc.. IF we farmed like we did in the 1930's with one way plows.. IT WOULD LOOK like the 1930's.. because it was/is a similar situation weather wise.. It's just that we are not turning the cover over exposing the soil to as much wind erosion.."

So these guys in the Northern Plains.. they don't believe it.. how far back do you have to go to see a Northern Plains drought.. other than 2002/03..?  the 1950's...

"No.. this.. what we are in NOW is like the 1930's (somewhat similar) and that was an extended period of dryness.. all the way from Boise City Oklahoma to the Dakota's.. and gulp.. you know I could be wrong.. but I just got a BAD FEELING about what I am seeing.. it could change.. something else could come in and blow it all up.. like a volcano.. which would change things.. or something else.. but.. if the pattern continues... "if if if.."  I just got a bad feeling going forward... like on July 1st a soybean crop that looks good.. but by August 1st.. it's gone.. it's TOAST.

This may be a BAD dryland Bean year.. We're as the past 2 years have been somewhat cool and wet.. an absence of HEAT unlike 2011 and 2012.. THIS year I think we're going flip back to HOT.. probably NOT as BAD as 11 or 12.. but Hotter.. and probably Dryer than 2013 or 2014.. I would NOT COUNT on a WET LH of the Summer this year.. Go Shorter season.. Go tougher.. stay away from the beans.. flowering in dry August heat.. but.. ???  All I can tell you for now.. it's too soon.. as we are transitioning from Winter to Spring.. to know what summer will be like yet.. and of course we get blow up thunderstorms.. that pop up.. Where ever.. at any time.. so you just don't know.. but.. this is PROBABLY gonna be a Tougher year.. and CERTAINLY expect that for the Northern Plains then what we have seen the past couple of years."

okay.. I may trust you too much because you've been really good thus far.. and everyone is due for a miss.. so.. ???  Nobody bats 1,000.. but I appreciate the info.. you've helped us out tremendously in preparation.. Thanks.

So that's it.. Like it or not.. he's not changing his tune.

fyi.. "we" could be wrong... 

edit add.. It's possible that this El Nino finally pumps enough moisture in here to sustain this wheat crop in the Southern Plains.. possible.. but.. we're digging out of such a DEEP HOLE.. there is NO SUBSOIL.. nothing to pull from as we hit these heat episodes.. like tomorrow with the winds.. suppose to be upper 80's.. and 20 mph winds "here."  

Where is the moisture going to come from to push through that?