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NE Iowa | jpartner- here are EW comments from Brent Harris, whom I subscribe.
SOYBEANS: While the BEST, near-term count in soybeans still suggests that the March 17 low at 9.53 ½ SHOULD HAVE marked the end of an intermediate, OR “Primary wave-[b]decline” from the Nov 2014/Jan 2015 highs, we clearly HAVE NOT witnessed a bullish, “five-wave rally” (so far?). So, while this DOESN’T MEAN that the advance-off the March 17 low won’t end-up producing a big rally, IT DOES MEAN that we probably WON’T have any strong “confirmation” prior to Tuesdays big report. So, at this point, we’ll just have to see what happens on Monday, and then decide whether or not we want to go long into the report. IF our Preferred Count proves correct here, then the May beans should now stage a “wave-(c)advance”...TO AT LEAST THE 10.55-10.66 ½ LEVEL. At which point, IF it’s possible to label completed, “wave-(c)advances” in BOTH the beans AND corn, then we could be looking at A SUBSTANTIAL SETBACK. In which case, at least for producers, we MAY recommend some MODERATE SELLING. However, because our Preferred Count in the beans also suggests that prices probably WON’T EX-
CEED THE 2014 LOW AT 9.04, my guess is that this particular scenario will ONLY RESULT in a “wave-(2)setback”. In which case, as long as a “five-down” DOES NOT OCCUR, we should be looking at A SUBSTANTIALLY LARGER ADVANCE...INTO THE SUMMER 2015 TIME-FRAME? On the other hand, however, IF the May beans FIRST EXCEED the March 17 low at 9.53 ½, then we’ll obviously have to look at an “Alternate Count”. To that end, my guess is that we’ll EITHER see a “Diagonal Triangle”, OR a larger, “five-wave drop” from the March 2 top. In the first case, we’ll only need ONE MORE DECLINE, probably to EITHER the 9.53-9.45 3/4, OR 9.36 ½-9.25 (great!) support area(s). Given the latter scenario, however, since we’ll still need to finish waves “3-down”, “4-up” and then “5-down”, I imagine it will take AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-TO-3-WEEKS, BEFORE the final low is in place. Anyhow, regardless, IF my long-term count is right, then we’re WITHIN 30-TO-60-CENTS OF A MAJOR LOW. Thus, IF we do drop, I’ll be looking to BUY. Support is at 9.71, 9.64, 9.58 ½-9.49 (good) and 9.36 ½-9.25 (great), with the resistance is at 9.71, 9.81, 9.87-9.89(good), 9.97 and 10.06 ½-10.15(good).
CORN: UNLESS the May corn CAN TRADE-ABOVE 3.98 ½ (or so?), BEFORE Tuesday’s report, I’d still say there’s ABOUT A 33-CHANCE that we’re COMPLETING a “wave-(b)advance” from the Jan 30 low...VIA THE CONTINUATION PATTERN ONLY. In which case, prices will need to stage A FINAL, “wave-(c)DECLINE”; probably yielding AN OPTIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET IN THE 3.68-3.62 RANGE? It should be duly noted, however, that this scenario could actually prove to be MORE BULLISH than our Preferred Count, as it’s HIGHLY UNLIKELY that we could’ve completed A MORE SIGNIFICANT, “Primary wave-[8]PEAK” (yet?). Given the “Alternate Count, AFTER one more sharp drop, prices would presumably have to stage AT LEAST A MAJOR, “wave-[c]ADVANCE”...BEFORE WE MIGHT be able to make a case for a SIGNIFICANT TOP? The main problem with this interpretation, however, has to do with the fact (?) that the patterns in BOTH the May AND Dec corn strongly indicate that we’ve ALREADY COMPLETED a larger, “three-wave decline” from the Dec highs ,i.e., at the March 18 lows. The implication of which, is that the May corn would now need stage AT LEAST a “wave-(c)advance”, of intermediate-degree. Based on the proximity of the “61.8%-times wave-(a)
projections” on BOTH the May contract, AND the continuation chart, this count indicates A BARE MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET IN THE 4.17-TO-4.28 RANGE. In the event IT IS possible to label a completed, “5-or-9-wave rally” off the March 18 low...when this area is reached, however, then A VERY CRITICAL-JUNCTURE will probably be at hand? At that point, IF a “five-wave drop” occurs, then producers will probably want TO PRICE SOME 2015 CORN...JUST IN CASE. In this event, we could be looking at A FINAL, “wave-[9]DECLINE”...back to the 2014 low of 3.18 1/4 ,i.e., BEFORE A HIGHLY-BULLISH POSITION is actually at hand. Of course, IF that “juncture” ONLY yields a “three-wave drop”, then the need for a “wave-[9]decline” WILL BE NEGATED. Support is at 3.90 1/4, 3.87 ½-3.84 ½(best?), 3.81-3.78 and 3.73 ½-3.72(max). Resistance is at 3.93 ½-3.96 ½(good), 4.04 ½-4.07, 4.11 ½ and 4.17.
BEANS: HRT are long May beans at 9.79 1/4(-$600). Keep the stop at 9.59.
CORN: HRT can buy the May corn at 3.87, using a stop at 3.71 1/4.
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