Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I'm guessing that he took information from the Jan WASDE. It is always important whenever anyone cites things like this to look at the whole thing in context in order to understand how they arrive at their conclusions.
There are several graphs but if you look through them you can see just where the big changes are and who or what to watch for. For instance, the big jump in beginning stocks for this year is because Argentina didn't get their beans sold due to political reasons. As for production, both the US and Brazil have moderate but not excessive increased production. Other than China increased soybean usage is just moderate. China just doesn't seem to need that many more beans. Interestingly both Brazil and the US used more beans, I would guess increased poultry production would account for it.
I conclude that modest declines in production by either Brazil and/or the US will bring supply and demand back into balance pretty quick. Remember $8 beans here means $5-6 beans in Brazil.
Edited by 1234 1/29/2015 18:09
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 soy beginning stocks-page-001.jpg (83KB - 127 downloads)
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Soy average price for 2015 and 2016 marketing year
