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Napanee, Ontario | But You can never replace the taste ;)
The cheapskates and poor folk already don't buy beef. Beef has been expensive for a long time vs other meat.
Yes, Ethanol demand for crop ground is very real. It is a floor on the amount of acreage that is required for grains production. Econ theory goes that If supply wanes far enough, and the prices gets high enough on beef, acres will switch back from row crops to pasture and hay. That is what us required for an expansion in beef.
Do you see this happening? far as i can tell, it's still going the other way.
For beef to expand, it must wrestle the acreage back from ethanol. The profits must be high enough that they outweigh the extra time and labor required to produce beef vs a row crop on the same ground. Are we there yet? maybe, .... regardless i believe we will indeed reach that point.
And Given the carryout and grain stocks that exist now, despite more acres than ever before producing, it wouldn't be long till you have corn back in the 8's on the slightest weather event, or supply disruption. Or even just from general level of demand from all sources that we have seen this year. And the pendulum swings back.
Beef isn't disappearing, it's growing in demand worldwide. Just like everything - ethanol, meat demand - it's the population. That is the slow train chugging along, raising the floor every year. So prices will have to grow along with it as competition between sources like Ethanol, grazing, ect increases for the limited resources (ground).
Will global land additions outpace us, and prices for all ag crashing down?
I guess that's the big question. In the meantime i'll enjoy the ride.
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Feeder Cattle - It just keeps Going, and Going... and Going...
