Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Here is Soybean Production, Consumption & Ending Stocks data from Index Mundi for 2013 which is in turn taken from USDA data. While there looks like 69 million metric tons of ending stocks when you look at the difference between production & consumption there is only 15 million metric tons difference or a 5% surplus. A bad production year in both North & South America could easily draw production below consumption.
There are other oil seeds, Canola, sunflowers etc. but their individual production in minor compared to soybean and are primarily used in the country of production. The world trade in these other oilseeds is very small compared to soybean.
As far as freight goes you need to recognize the difference between shipping soybeans to the US vs. a country like China. The US produces 89 million metric tons of soybeans of which it uses 48 million domestically. China on the other hand produces 12.2 million metric tons but uses 79 million tons. A ton of soybeans imported into the US is competing with $15 beans here so the freight is subtracted from the $15 (or $550/ton) while for China there is no significant domestic supply so the price landed in China be much higher than here, namely the price of the next most expensive source (the US) plus freight.
Rank Country Production (100 Consumption Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
1 United States 89,507.00 48,434.00 3,667.00
2 Brazil 87,500.00 40,102.00 19,033.00
3 Argentina 54,000.00 38,600.00 29,804.00
4 China 12,200.00 79,650.00 13,698.00
5 India 11,000.00 11,050.00 363
6 Paraguay 8,100.00 3,830.00 119
7 Canada 5,200.00 1,870.00 380
8 Uruguay 3,500.00 170 10
9 Ukraine 2,763.00 990 258
10 Bolivia 2,310.00 2,100.00 6
11 Russian Federation 1,636.00 2,615.00 116
12 EU-27 1,245.00 13,270.00 521
13 South Africa 990 975 71
14 Indonesia 620 2,454.00 80
15 Nigeria 450 470 0
16 Serbia 400 365 7
17 Viet Nam 300 1,595.00 70
18 Zambia 280 280 0
19 Mexico 280 3,885.00 100
20 Myanmar 260 260 0
21 Japan 198 3,018.00 164
22 Iran, Islamic Republic Of 195 420 45
23 Uganda 166 161 0
24 Korea, Republic Of 154 1,310.00 75
25 Korea, Democratic People's Republic Of 140 162 2
26 Turkey 125 1,320.00 352
27 Zimbabwe 90 90 0
28 Venezuela 75 292 32
29 Thailand 70 1,985.00 83
30 Ecuador 70 71 0
31 Colombia 68 415 41
32 Australia 63 60 0
33 Guatemala 36 51 7
34 Egypt 25 1,657.00 28
35 Bosnia and Herzegovina 8 40 0
36 Nicaragua 7 7 0
37 Switzerland 3 26 0
38 Taiwan, Province Of China 3 2,250.00 159
39 Peru 3 252 3
40 Pakistan 2 2 0
41 Syrian Arab Republic 2 72 0
42 Philippines 1 77 3
43 Singapore 0 20 0
44 Romania 0 0 0
45 Trinidad and Tobago 0 0 0
46 Uzbekistan 0 10 2
47 Chile 0 30 0
48 Barbados 0 20 0
49 Bangladesh 0 375 45
50 United Arab Emirates 0 0 0
51 Costa Rica 0 280 5
52 Cuba 0 132 0
53 EU-25 0 0 0
54 Norway 0 420 4
55 Panama 0 11 0
56 Morocco 0 75 0
57 Malaysia 0 575 54
58 Israel 0 348 8
total 284,045. 268,999. 69,415.00
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Maizing's soybean spread thread continued.
