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What few expect: inflation
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zenfarm
Posted 10/4/2017 15:11 (#6287249 - in reply to #6287139)
Subject: RE: What few expect: inflation


South central kansas




   There is a long term negative correlation between stocks and commodities, with regular leadership of one or the other, with those leadership roles being about roughly fifteen years.

   The following is from a paper looking at just such a correlation and was written in 2012.

   If history is any guide, we have a ways to go before commodities outperform stocks.

http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/130273/2/jaae443ip6.pdf

"An examination of the relative price strength between stocks and commodities suggests that stocks and commodities in the United States have alternated in price leadership with cycles of 29–32 years (an average length about 31 years). In interpreting the increasing phase of the relative-price strength cycle as an indicator of periods when stocks outperform commodities, one conclusion is that such phases last about 15 years. Price performances in stocks and commodities have been dominated by commodities over the past decade (a down-phase in the RS cycle that started in 2000). The dominant conclusion from the cyclical results is that price dominance in agricultural commodity markets should expire in the next few years, under the assumption that the cyclical pattern identified in this analysis will repeat as it has over the past 140 years."



Edited by zenfarm 10/4/2017 15:24




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