40th parallel | kts - 3/13/2016 19:57
Why not hold past july 10
generally speaking the trade feels they have a handle on the crop by then. weather up till then is proven and forecast from that point forward encompass the general theme of how the crop most likely will finish
it also depends on your willingness to hold until the following spring summer
2010 was an example of the trade being caught flat footed going into harvest
2011 was a continuation and thus you have to shift gears mid race and realize the trade is worried, thus holding past July 10th is alright
its not an absolute science, and the reality is if we cycle higher it will be a 2010 type event again that carries into the following year with a steady march
keep in mind your storage capacity, appetite for risk, and operating position with regard to cash needs also plays a role
also, keep this in mind. Prior to the mid 00's we had pretty cushy carryout numbers and production world wide was ramping up, thus the market kept a tight range. we are in a much more volatile market, even though it doesn't feel that way. looking at stocks to use ratio, we are one hiccup away from some major price moves.
now if you can tell me when that hiccup occurs, then you have this thing whooped |
How much grain do I hold until summer?
