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| I don't follow your thinking cfdr.
The fault I find if I'm understanding you correctly, which I don't think I am. Is that cash is higher than deferred month futures? I don't necessarily care about that, maybe til apr there is slight relationship but to the rest there is not.
I do agree with LKM that the market structure was continually pushing cattle out of October to December. Then in December we were pushing to Feb. then for the last 3 weeks of January until this past Monday, we were still pushing to Apr. Then Monday this stopped when the Feb Apr spread went from -1 to +1.35 through the course of the week making apr at a discount, and now discounted all the way back. All of a sudden the markets going to want your cattle now, but in Nebraska we went from a plus 2 basis to -2 to -3 in one week. This is what concerns me. Did we just fall off a cliff?
Maybe not but it sure feels like it...I personally thought cash would lead us (futures) higher but we have gone nowhere in cash over the last 4 weeks along with the cutouts until this week where cash stayed same ish and cutouts dropped substantially while futures rallied.
Sorry cfdr for some reason I'm failing to comprehend what your throwing out in that last post, I'm gunna read it a few more times. | |
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Cattle
