I'm a little surprised at the size of payments but given these lower prices.. assuming it stays down here through October.. ???
The Corn price lock was $4.62 given the current futures on Dec of $3.32 that's a $1.30 gain Soybeans were $11.36 vs $9.58 for Novies on Friday = $1.78
So if you had a 100 bu aph on Corn.. at 85% @ $4.62 = 392.70 / $3.32 = 118.28 break even yields.. If you have a 200 bu aph on corn.. that's 236 bu breakeven..
For Soybeans.. 43 bu aph x .85 x $11.36 = $415.21 / $9.58 = 39.53 break even yields If you have a 60 bu aph = 60.79 break even..
I'll be a little surprised if it stays down here through October as Informa released it's update Friday afternoon.. according to Market Rally.. http://www.agweb.com/multimedia/market_rally/
They lowered Harvested Corn acres to 81.6 vs USDA at 83.8..down 2.2 myn holding yields at 171.8 vs USDA's 171.6 = 14.024 vs USDA at 14.395. A 371 myn bu cut in expected production..
On the beans they took 1.2 myn off Harvested vs USDA at 82.9 vs 84.1 with a yield of 46.5 = 3.857
The test weights on irrigated ground are a little lower this year as we missed the late season rains to fill vs last year.. Last year we AVERAGED 62.25 tw on corn.. this year it's still good but more like 59 to 60.. on 200 bushel ground that's 8 bushels of lost yield potential.. that said.. we are still pulling in about what we did last year.. to a little better.. We may still see better tw's as the fuller season has yet to come off...?? |