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Weekly Ethanol report.
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JonSCKs
Posted 7/2/2015 16:50 (#4658167)
Subject: Weekly Ethanol report.


Getting caught up a little.. this weeks numbers we saw a pullback in the grind.. however implied disappearance is still running over a myn bbls per day for the week.  Impressive.  Stocks of ethanol continue to fall to 19.532 myn bbls.. which is the 2nd lowest number for the year behind January 2nd's 18,845.

Got to wonder with the price rally in grains if margins will not be under pressure a little to maintain this level of grind..??  However, no doubt that the ethanol part of the economy has been a BIG factor in the prosperity enjoyed in the heartland of the country.  Up's and down's.. through it all it's been a HUGE net positive!!

 

          Computed           
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US   
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished  
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline  
        37,936       2.78conversion5,005 Ethanol as % of
8/23/2013              0 WASDE5134    
8/30/2013819 861 37 16,21643%          90949.47%  
9/6/2013848 834 15 16,26943% 21.4 150  855.489,681  86059.69%  
9/13/2013838 842 3 16,17843% 12.0 84  854.088,623  90289.33%  
9/20/2013832 852 48 15,61341% 108.7 761  960.787,988  88469.63%  
9/27/2013875 846 14 15,50941% 57.9 40514001206903.992,536358,828 85279.92%  
10/4/2013868 868 0 15,39041% 17.0 119  885.091,796  88469.81%  
10/11/2013869 857 0 15,41941% 7.9 55  864.991,901  90779.44%  
10/18/2013897 851 0 15,49941% 34.6 242  885.694,863  87979.67%  
10/25/2013911 870 0 14,96139% 117.9 82512411206987.996,343374,903 90549.61%  
11/1/2013902 859 0 15,16540% 13.9 97  872.995,391  92929.24%  
11/8/2013927 874 0 15,15340% 54.7 383  928.798,035  90329.68%  
11/15/2013904 853 0 15,08340% 61.0 427  914.095,603  89249.56%  
11/22/2013927 837 0 15,02240% 98.7 691  935.798,035  89099.39%  
11/29/2013913 837 0 15,12440% 61.4 4301,9312134898.496,555483,6191,217,35088739.43%  
12/6/2013944 826 0 15,48841% 66.0 462  892.099,833  83489.89%  
12/13/2013928 827 0 15,62541% 81.4 570  908.498,141  90169.17%  
12/20/2013926 876 0 15,66041% 45.0 315  921.097,929  91769.55%  
12/27/2013913 808 0 15,58241% 116.1 81321601605924.196,555392,458 88939.09%  
1/3/2014919 756 0 16,13843% 83.6 585  839.697,189  82749.14%  
1/10/2014868 797 0 16,07842% 79.6 557  876.691,796  80219.94%  
1/17/2014905 802 0 17,01845% -31.3 -219  770.795,709  80599.95%  
1/24/2014900 815 0 16,93245% 97.3 681  912.395,180  85849.49%  
1/31/2014895 801 0 16,73944% 121.6 8512,4552,054922.694,651474,524 84529.48%  
2/7/2014902 816 0 17,06245% 39.9 279  855.995,391  83259.80%  
2/14/2014903 806 0 17,20345% 76.9 538  882.995,497  803010.04%  
2/21/2014905 835 0 17,02445% 95.6 669  930.695,709  85359.78%  
2/28/2014894 846 0 16,61144% 107.0 7492,2351,605953.094,545381,142 841110.06%  
3/7/2014869 841 0 15,90842% 128.4 899  969.491,901  89499.40%  
3/14/2014891 845 0 15,27740% 136.1 953  981.194,228  85129.93%  
3/21/2014885 857 0 15,65341% -25.7 -180  831.393,594  90029.52%  
3/28/2014922 850 11 15,87542% 51.3 3592,0312,139901.397,506377,229 87139.76%  
4/4/2014896 852 38 16,40743% 6.0 42  858.094,757  89969.47%  
4/11/2014939 848 0 16,95245% 13.1 92  861.199,304  86169.84%  
4/18/2014910 853 11 16,51844% 130.0 910  983.096,237  843010.12%  
4/25/2014898 865 0 17,21245% -66.1 -4635811,585798.994,968385,267 86939.95%  
5/2/2014894 846 0 17,14045% 58.3 408  904.394,545  87199.70%  
5/9/2014922 890 43 17,30246% 51.9 363  941.997,506  91919.68%  
5/16/2014925 886 11 16,99045% 94.6 662  980.697,824  91749.66%  
5/23/2014927 895 0 17,48946% -39.3 -275  855.798,035  93109.61%  
5/30/2014938 862 0 18,25048% -32.7 -2299291,263829.399,199487,109 91049.47%  
6/6/2014944 869 0 18,42249% 50.4 353  919.499,833  862410.08%  
6/13/2014972 891 0 17,85047% 162.7 1139  1053.7102,794  92589.62%  
6/20/2014938 891 0 18,18348% -0.6 -4  890.499,199  881310.11%  
6/27/2014953 883 0 18,20448% 67.0 4691,9571,431950.0100,785402,611 91689.63%  
7/4/2014927 883 9 18,28648% 41.3 289  924.398,035  89359.88%  
7/11/2014943 851 5 17,94547% 145.7 1020  996.799,727  90579.40%  
7/18/2014959 852 0 17,94047% 107.7 754  959.7101,419  87929.69%  
7/25/2014954 877 7 18,58749% -8.4 -592,0041,600868.6100,891400,073 90069.74%  
8/1/2014902 875 0 18,26048% 73.7 516  948.795,391  93599.35%  
8/8/2014931 890 0 17,76047% 112.4 787  1002.498,458  89229.98%  
8/15/2014937 864 0 18,25148% 2.9 20  866.999,093  87759.85%  
8/22/2014913 889 0 17,31746% 157.4 1102  1046.496,555  91009.77%  
8/29/2014921 880 0 17,67347% -9.9 -692,3561,292870.197,401486,8985,00594809.28%  
9/5/2014927 850 0 18,02148% 27.3 191  877.398,035  86119.87%  
9/12/2014931 846 0 18,80550% -27.0 -189  819.098,458  87079.72%  
9/19/2014889 886 0 18,59249% 33.4 234  919.494,017  878110.09%  
9/26/2014881 862 0 18,82850% -14.7 -1031331,354847.393,171383,681 86609.95%  
10/3/2014901 858 0 18,65149% 68.3 478  926.395,286  86459.92%  
10/10/2014885 885 3 18,35648% 45.1 316  930.193,594  90439.79%  
10/17/2014896 876 0 17,94047% 79.4 556  955.494,757  88369.91%  
10/24/2014937 878 0 17,03945% 187.7 1314  1065.799,093  88679.90%  
10/31/2014929 860 0 17,16945% 50.4 3533,0171,888910.498,247480,976 91629.39%  
11/7/2014946 860 0 17,70547% 9.4 66  869.4100,045  90059.55%  
11/14/2014970 854 0 17,33546% 168.9 1182  1022.9102,583  91949.29%  
11/21/2014982 874 0 17,07245% 145.6 1019  1019.6103,852  92549.44%  
11/28/2014962 856 0 17,28946% 75.0 5252,7922,166931.0101,737408,2161,272,87292459.26%  
12/5/2014988 838 0 17,75047% 84.1 589  922.1104,486  85499.80%  
12/12/2014990 857 0 17,65947% 146.0 1022  1003.0104,698  93739.14%  
12/19/2014992 880 0 17,61546% 118.3 828  998.3104,909  95189.25%  
12/26/2014972 856 18 18,09448% 65.6 4592,8981,798921.6102,794416,888 96148.90%  
1/2/2015949 789 0 18,84550% 52.7 369  841.7100,362  88098.96%  
1/9/2015978 815 0 20,22953% -34.7 -243  780.3103,429  88759.18%  
1/16/2015979 837 0 20,38754% 119.4 836  956.4103,535  88519.46%  
1/23/2015978 842 0 20,63154% 101.1 708  943.1103,429  90229.33%  
1/30/2015948 830 0 20,98655% 67.3 4712,1411,637897.3100,256511,010 84429.83%  
2/6/2015961 826 0 21,13556% 113.7 796  939.7101,631  82829.97%  
2/13/2015964 852 0 21,08456% 119.3 835  971.3101,948  88099.67%  
2/20/2015947 845 0 21,59457% 29.1 204  874.1100,150  89159.48%  
2/27/2015931 846 0 21,52857% 94.4 6612,4962,031940.498,458402,188395,81486309.80%  
3/6/2015944 840 0 21,17356% 154.7 1083  994.799,833  85159.86%  
3/13/2015947 863 0 20,82055% 134.4 941  997.4100,150  92609.32%  
3/20/2015953 866 0 21,31756% 16.0 112  882.0100,785  861910.05%  
3/27/2015952 869 0 20,54754% 193.0 13513,4871,9991062.0100,679401,447439,42394359.21%  
4/3/2015936 867 0 20,48354% 78.1 547  945.198,987  861010.07%  
4/10/2015924 885 0 20,64554% 15.9 111  900.997,718  89149.93%  
4/17/2015930 879 53 21,34256% 4.4 31  883.498,353  91859.57%  
4/24/2015921 875 0 20,79755% 123.9 867  998.997,401392,458409,04589209.81%  
5/1/2015887 870 0 20,76255% 22.0 1541,7101,786892.093,805  87859.90%  
5/8/2015912 891 0 20,29954% 87.1 610  978.196,449  92019.68%  
5/15/2015958 906 0 20,43454% 32.7 229  938.7101,314  92619.78%  
5/22/2015969 905 0 20,09753% 112.1 785  1017.1102,477  97349.30%  
5/29/2015972 874 0 20,06853% 102.1 7152,339 976.1102,794496,839 89789.73%  
6/5/2015992 884 0 20,24653% 82.6 578  966.6104,909  96009.21%  
6/12/2015980 912 0 20,71855% 0.6 4  912.6103,640  91769.94%  
6/19/2015994 902 0 19,84052% 217.4 15222,104 1119.4105,121  96559.34%  
6/26/2015968 908 0 19,53251% 104.0 728  1012.0102,371  97319.33%  
                       
              8 wk Avg956.40      
Average 9/5/14947.72 864.05 1.72 19,52251% 79.2 555  2.784,309,744since 9/5/14    
Q2 Average967.46 839.46 1.38 19,81152% 82.8 580103,450 2.714,421,066      
Q3 Average938.85 876.15 4.08 20,67655% 82.8 580  2.814,263,732      
Q4 Average988.67 899.33 0.00 20,26853% 100.2 701  102.58%-111,322      
Average total925.98 857.67 3.40 17,92647% 68.0 476 1688.950.9893246,012      
              5066.85        
Q1 Actual925.85 865 0.23 17,90847% 65.3   5942   1,272,872    
Q2 Actual967.46 839.46 1.38 21,52857% 89.6 579.6 8153.58   1,330,083    
Q3 Actual939 880 1 20,06853% 76.0 579.7 6920   1,290,956    
Q4988.67 899.33 0.5 20,00053% 90.6   8242.83   1,359,239    
                   WASDE   
                 pace5,2535,200919  
Q2 14907.85 59.62               53   
Q3 14908.92 29.92                   
Q4 14937.50 44.77                   
                       
Proj Q4 15982.27                     
                       
                       

We've Ground about 4.3 Byn Bushels of Grain      (some of which is Sorghum.. which has mostly stopped.. as well as Cellulosic production.. but minor..    ) for Ethanol since Sept 1st.. I did CHANGE the conversion factor upping it to 2.78.. which is still lower than the LAST WASDE that went from 2.71 last year to 2.81..AND have NOW ADDED the 2.81 factor for comparison.. which seems pretty high to me...??  So we have argued over that.. but the 2.71 conversion still is what it was last year on Ethanol / WASDE Corn Grind.  Although they are using 2.81 this year..  ???

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Cheers.

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