AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

When did China start buying our ag products?
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
frytownfarmer
Posted 2/5/2020 15:22 (#8023244)
Subject: When did China start buying our ag products?



Frytown, Iowa

this web site https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china makes it sound like China started buying our soy in October of 2000... Just wanting to know because there is a pattern of massive run up in soybeans every 4 years... it only goes back to 2000 and... if its because of China... and China has changed... then this pattern might be broken. I dont want to bet on the pattern when the cause of the pattern has changed...

I was in high school in 2000 so China was not on my mind. 

any info appreciated...


 





(Screen Shot 2020-01-06 at 10.34.34 AM (full).png)



(Screen Shot 2020-02-05 at 3.17.53 PM (full).png)



Attachments
----------------
Attachments Screen Shot 2020-01-06 at 10.34.34 AM (full).png (70KB - 189 downloads)
Attachments Screen Shot 2020-02-05 at 3.17.53 PM (full).png (60KB - 223 downloads)
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Joe R
Posted 2/5/2020 15:28 (#8023256 - in reply to #8023244)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?


Also election years
Top of the page Bottom of the page
wsnhmr
Posted 2/5/2020 15:55 (#8023296 - in reply to #8023244)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?


Buddy told me to hold beans in late 2003,china pissed me off and ran beans up from below 7 to 1080 and I held and averaged 990 ..hate those commies
530 to 1060 1080 cash

Edited by wsnhmr 2/5/2020 16:11
Top of the page Bottom of the page
w1891
Posted 2/5/2020 16:10 (#8023321 - in reply to #8023296)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?


S Illinois		It wasn’t China demand which ran the price up. 03 was the aphid year and yields cratered. The US soy yield that year was only 33.9bu/acre.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
wsnhmr
Posted 2/5/2020 16:13 (#8023328 - in reply to #8023321)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?


That was why my buddy told me to hold,his buddy told him central illinois had awful beans but china did come in and buy,.. southern illinois had a good crop

had a round of mad cow scare that year also

Edited by wsnhmr 2/5/2020 16:15
Top of the page Bottom of the page
johannes
Posted 2/5/2020 16:43 (#8023378 - in reply to #8023244)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?


China bought a pittance of US soybeans in years prior to 2000 (https://www.agweb.com/article/will-chinas-hunger-for-us-soybeans-last-NAA-ben-potter). So it looks like the PNTR legislation in 2000 was the catalyst to China buying more US beans.

However, South American production has more than tripled since 2000. And SA keeps adding more acres - errr, I mean hectacres - every year.  So I wouldn't be betting on a massive run to $15+ like your chart suggests might happen.  But if you think the pattern will repeat this year, then Chicago is giving away $15 calls for next to nothing!


Top of the page Bottom of the page
partimer
Posted 2/5/2020 18:18 (#8023555 - in reply to #8023244)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?


Northwest Iowa		If you broaden the range to 3-5 years for highs, you'll cover most of them. Corn and beans both. My uncle used to say that election years were good corn price years. Not confirmed. Hog's tops used to be reliable. 3.5 years low to low. Then 2 years up for some reason and then about 16-18 months down. For a while I used 2 years form the high as the next low but the hogs are kind o twisted up now. Always appreciate your comments,fry.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Scottjoe
Posted 2/5/2020 22:06 (#8024132 - in reply to #8023555)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?


Southern kansas		You confirmed what I remember from the early 80s.
Hogs were on a two year cycle at that time.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Clay SEIA
Posted 2/5/2020 23:09 (#8024223 - in reply to #8023555)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?



The hog cycle was a lot different when millions of sows were in porte-huts, A-frames, or pull-together farrowing houses.  Everybody kinda got the idea to expand or pull back at the same time, but the facilities and Mother Nature had a lot more impact on how long it took to implement changes in production.

Top of the page Bottom of the page
tmrand
Posted 2/6/2020 05:59 (#8024317 - in reply to #8024223)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?



Southeast Colorado		It would also seem to me that now a majority of the hog people could care less about market prices. The guys I haul feed to are completely vertically integrated. They surely care more about the price of bacon on the store shelf than the futures price of lean hogs.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Farms With CASE
Posted 2/6/2020 11:50 (#8024591 - in reply to #8023244)
Subject: RE: When did China start buying our ag products?



North Liberty and South Bend, Indiana		Charts dont lie. Show patterns that will repeat. Looks like a major move up coming.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)