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Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!
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5 Head
Posted 9/12/2017 11:36 (#6243145)
Subject: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


South West MN
Corn hybreds get better every year. Hence trend line goes up.

USDA is right, right now. Like it or not.

So what is the best posable way to market the crop knowing what we know.

Talked to a farmer that has a lot of production locked in at $3.75 cash and is happy with that. He used a headge to arive stragity.

My plan is to walk it off the farm. Rolled some cattle contracts today so my cattle will go latter and bigger.

What about selling calls?

Looking for real marketing plans not just blaming USDA for your problems. Won't get you anywhere anyways.
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clicker
Posted 9/12/2017 11:41 (#6243157 - in reply to #6243145)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


Southern IA
walk it all off the farm and hope I get 1st cost back from the feeder calf purchase! lol
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emtbd1979
Posted 9/12/2017 11:57 (#6243189 - in reply to #6243145)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!



west central illinois
5 Head - 9/12/2017 10:36

Corn hybreds get better every year. Hence trend line goes up.

USDA is right, right now. Like it or not.

So what is the best posable way to market the crop knowing what we know.

Talked to a farmer that has a lot of production locked in at $3.75 cash and is happy with that. He used a headge to arive stragity.

My plan is to walk it off the farm. Rolled some cattle contracts today so my cattle will go latter and bigger.

What about selling calls?

Looking for real marketing plans not just blaming USDA for your problems. Won't get you anywhere anyways.
in a market like this your options now are almost extinct. Walking the grain off never worked out too well in the past either. But I'm sure it's different this time.
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JUST LEARNING
Posted 9/12/2017 12:07 (#6243228 - in reply to #6243145)
Subject: 2 birds with 1 stone


KS and NE in eastern 3rd
Plan to just dump it in the ditch and get 3.96 for it. Increase my market price and reduce the carryout.
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JUST LEARNING
Posted 9/12/2017 12:09 (#6243236 - in reply to #6243145)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


KS and NE in eastern 3rd
A couple guys that tried walking it off here the last couple of years ended up losing the ground they were walking on trying it.
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Conan the Farmer
Posted 9/12/2017 12:14 (#6243247 - in reply to #6243145)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!



South Central Iowa

 

Do not sell calls uncovered and do not fear market. Hard to market at this juncture, something should have been done before. I bought some SDNC Oct puts for soy at $9.60 before the report for my beans I will harvest starting Friday-Monday. Forward contracts are for winter delivery and those are sell across the scale bushels. So I wanted to protect in case we were going to probe the bottom after the Wasde. Turns out, maybe we will. But it cost a dime for them, big deal. If I throw them away, that's awesome!

Make sure you include your full opportunity cost in walking it off the farm. Anytime I have included feeding out our calves, it only nets $30 more or so than just selling a 600# feeder and selling the corn. A 1,200 bringing $1.20 is $1,440 with 3% death loss is $1,397 per fat minus $150 in supplements and medications is $1,247. A 600 feeder brings $1.6 for $960 and 80 bushel of corn at $3.25 is $260 for an opportunity cost of $1,220. So feeding my calves out would net me $25 in the above scenario. It really has never made sense for me. Different with scales of economy of a feedlot with 10,000 head I'm sure.



Edited by Conan the Farmer 9/12/2017 12:16
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Palmtopper
Posted 9/12/2017 12:28 (#6243270 - in reply to #6243145)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


SE Iowa
If you have own cow calf and feeding them out it works. Buying feeders..aint gonna be any better unless you playin with investor $ so dont kid yourself.
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Bonpas
Posted 9/12/2017 13:20 (#6243368 - in reply to #6243270)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


SEIL
Palmtopper - 9/12/2017 12:28

"If you have own cow calf and feeding them out it works." - Incorrect. Doesn't matter whether you own them feeders or buy them as far as the economics of adding value to the corn.
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tiger6620
Posted 9/12/2017 14:19 (#6243459 - in reply to #6243270)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


Nw Iowa
Palmtopper - 9/12/2017 12:28

If you have own cow calf and feeding them out it works. Buying feeders..aint gonna be any better unless you playin with investor $ so dont kid yourself.


Palmtopper, do you realize how many cow/calf pairs a farmer would need to walk his corn crop off the farm through home raised calves?.. lol. If a 500 lb steer takes 80-100 bushel to get fat then you would need 2 cows for every acre of corn produced.....a guy with 1000 acres of corn would need 2000 cows.......just sayin..
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Palmtopper
Posted 9/12/2017 19:18 (#6243979 - in reply to #6243459)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


SE Iowa
I did not say walk 100% corn off farm. Stay with the thread of comparing selling vs walking.
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sdcowman
Posted 9/12/2017 13:12 (#6243359 - in reply to #6243145)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


Gary , SD
great plan...make your fat cattle super heavy and bust that market too..............
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mjl
Posted 9/12/2017 13:57 (#6243420 - in reply to #6243359)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


MN
cheap grain=cheap livestock
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agfarms
Posted 9/12/2017 14:10 (#6243444 - in reply to #6243420)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


NWPA
mjl - 9/12/2017 13:57

cheap grain=cheap livestock




This .....
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Chad H
Posted 9/12/2017 17:23 (#6243745 - in reply to #6243420)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


NE SD
Exactly. Some can't seem to get that through their head. Too many people get to thinking they should walk it off and it drops those markets too.
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5 Head
Posted 9/12/2017 15:22 (#6243549 - in reply to #6243359)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


South West MN
sdcowman - 9/12/2017 13:12

great plan...make your fat cattle super heavy and bust that market too..............


The market is telling me to. With dec futures $5 over October that is $75 dollars a head more just on the initial weight for 60 days extra feed.
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Indrtfmr
Posted 9/12/2017 16:39 (#6243667 - in reply to #6243549)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!


NW in.
That's just like planting to much corn.
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emtbd1979
Posted 9/12/2017 16:49 (#6243682 - in reply to #6243667)
Subject: RE: Quit blaming the USDA and get back to marketing!!!



west central illinois
Indrtfmr - 9/12/2017 15:39

That's just like planting to much corn.
he must have forgotten the late 90's and early 2000's already. It's a short term solution to a long term problem.
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