Posted 5/11/2011 21:29 (#1770187) Subject: Based on....................
13.5B corn demand..............and 365 days in a year................that's basically 37M used everyday on average.............and 80M bushel jump in inventories covers what...........additional 3 days???????????????? Am I doing the math right.................based on USDA numbers we went from a 16 day supply to 19 day supply in corn.............and that's September 1st right??????????? So if no new corn enters the system by September 20th we could be out................and I don't mean sucking air............I mean OUT...........
Does this sound right...............and if so.............this is bearish how???????????? Especially given this spring..................
What's that...........same battle different year in 2012...............what if 154-156 nat avg...............and $5-$6 corn leading into this keeping demand alive...........
Posted 5/11/2011 21:39 (#1770204 - in reply to #1770203) Subject: Physical..........basis will have to do the work if the bot doesn't.........still early give it time
Posted 5/11/2011 21:48 (#1770227 - in reply to #1770204) Subject: RE: Physical..........basis will have to do the work if the bot doesn't.........still early give it
SW MN and Gold Canyon AZ
Basis hasn't changed much to give that signal, tells me theres enough corn
Posted 5/11/2011 21:55 (#1770242 - in reply to #1770227) Subject: Re: Based on....................
michigan
talked to a few elevators today and they are quoting better basis on old crop than they have in a long time so if there is all these extra bushels they should not have to be narrowing the basis to buy corn. even all the grain buyers i talked to dont know were they are coming up with these extra numbers all of a sudden. do you guys think there will be a correction from today in the near future
Posted 5/11/2011 21:58 (#1770248 - in reply to #1770242) Subject: Re: Based on....................
As mlebrun stated, we're tradimg money flows right now. The goings on in Greece has the hedgies running from the euro, to the dollar, and out of commodities. I think we'll have an upward correction, the question is from what level? For the record, I sold a little old crop corn, and a little new crop corn, today.
Posted 5/11/2011 22:27 (#1770329 - in reply to #1770227) Subject: Re: Based on....................
NE Kansas
I disagree that there will be an inversion of July basis. I think as much as +40 or =50 at KC . I'm holding some old corn for this to come. Hope mlebrun that you haven't lock all thos HTA in on basis..
Posted 5/12/2011 07:44 (#1770711 - in reply to #1770329) Subject: Re: Based on....................
SW MN and Gold Canyon AZ
I only have one july left and no I haven't locked it in yet, waiting patiently, even though it hasn't moved much lately I don't think it will get wider.Worst I feel can happen is it stays the same.We are in an area with alot of corn but not as bad as central mn.
Posted 5/12/2011 08:45 (#1770794 - in reply to #1770329) Subject: Re: Based on....................
seenitall - 5/12/2011 21:27
I disagree that there will be an inversion of July basis. I think as much as +40 or =50 at KC . I'm holding some old corn for this to come. Hope mlebrun that you haven't lock all thos HTA in on basis..
I hope with that comment, you mean you are holding "hedged" corn and waiting for it to happen! Sorry, but if futures were to drop $1.00 and basis were to improve $.50, you are still behind the 8-ball.
Posted 5/11/2011 22:03 (#1770269 - in reply to #1770204) Subject: RE: Physical..........basis will have to do the work if the bot doesn't.........still early give it
Everbody and their brother are calling an old crop top after the fact. . mizzou, if you have old crop left still not a bad price and worth a lot more than most was sold for. Dont know what the weather will do, but believe there are weather scares ahead. mLebrun is right that it is about money flow now. With stocks this tight grains can rally even if the economy, crude, stocks, whatever are in the tank. good luck to all in their marketing and production this year.
Based on....................
