|
NW Indiana | So let me give you the possible bull case. Its one simple question, who has been predicting higher prices for 2024? Name one analyst that has been calling for corn over say $5.30 this year? Anyone? Everyone and their brother has been anticipating lower prices with a large crowd predicting sub $4. But who has called for $5.50? $6?? Anyone? So basically what is the one thing no one sees coming? So how would you say people have themselves positioned? Just a little food for thought.
Now lets lay out a possible fundamental case. Lets just say we do have some pp but only take 1 million acres from corn to 89, that is not a massive event. Now with late planting, possibly poor stands and not as good of roots early lets just plug in the 2022 yield of 173 and we basically end up with a 14 billion bu crop. That could easily drop carryout down to the 1.5-1.7 range. Again it isn't necessarily where we end up but during massive moves it is the fear of where it could go. So is $6 out of the question? Although I wouldn't put the odds high I sure as heck wouldn't rule it out like it seems basically everyone has which is one reason I think it is possible.
Before all the bears have a stroke I'm not predicting anything but I will say I think the odds are starting to favor $6 over $3.50.
| |
|
Who has been predicting???
