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Starbuck Manitoba Canada | As in Go Down! |
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| I have seen many market watchers call for 56K BTC after the halving. Which does match with past years drops post halving.
I like to keep an eye on some mid cap alt coins to see how well they are holding ground while BTC is trying to find a bottom. Those mid cap alts get hit hard on BTC drops but there comes a point they dig in footing and hold while BTC is doing its thing.
The biggest question is if the top is in. History would suggest not based on time frame post halving. BTC got a good prehalving run because of the ETF.
Now I think the post ETF retrace is happening. BTC you can look at price because by design that coin supply is lessening. But other mid caps is good to look at market cap compared to previous cycles. Some of those mid cap and even lg caps haven't hit their previous highs for market cap. This is why I think there is more to come.
2 camps right now.....1 the top is in or 2 the cycle is just beginning and accumulation is taking place.
I am in the 2nd camp and will be looking at these 3 things for this cycle. BTC price above 100k, total crypto market cap come nov/dec 2024, total crypto market cap approaching 8 trillion.
Big money is involved even more now, so a lot of the same games from the stock market are being executed here as well.
If BTC hits sub 50k area there are going to be a lot of buyers waiting. I don't think it makes it there. But it could.
One thing to watch for to really guess a top in this cycle. Open your phone app store watch for a crypto exchange like coinbase or uniswap as the #1 free app. Then the last of the retailers are getting sucked in.
July to Nov will be a very telling time frame on direction. The cycle based on history is supposed to last into 2025. I am cautious of that because the only way to truly make money (if dollars is your gauge) is to sell during that euphoria/greed stage when the last of the retailers are buying. I plan on being early than trying to time any top.
Edited by jimmy 5/1/2024 09:56
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| Are you hoping to buy more? Or are you upset with the holders who are up 300% over the last 16 months? If the US continues to print money and debase the dollar, asset prices (including bitcoin) will continue to run.
Edited by Hawkeye1 5/1/2024 14:18
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Starbuck Manitoba Canada | I am against it in the fact that it allows the criminal element of the world a much easier way to move and hide money. Eventually it will lead to a Government controlled form of crypto and when that happens then they will have total control over the people. The idea of social governance will be taken to a level where our freedom will be striped away. A cashless society will be an absolute disaster. |
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| jimmy - 5/1/2024 09:46
I have seen many market watchers call for 56K BTC after the halving. Which does match with past years drops post halving.
I like to keep an eye on some mid cap alt coins to see how well they are holding ground while BTC is trying to find a bottom. Those mid cap alts get hit hard on BTC drops but there comes a point they dig in footing and hold while BTC is doing its thing.
The biggest question is if the top is in. History would suggest not based on time frame post halving. BTC got a good prehalving run because of the ETF.
Now I think the post ETF retrace is happening. BTC you can look at price because by design that coin supply is lessening. But other mid caps is good to look at market cap compared to previous cycles. Some of those mid cap and even lg caps haven't hit their previous highs for market cap. This is why I think there is more to come.
2 camps right now.....1 the top is in or 2 the cycle is just beginning and accumulation is taking place.
I am in the 2nd camp and will be looking at these 3 things for this cycle. BTC price above 100k, total crypto market cap come nov/dec 2024, total crypto market cap approaching 8 trillion.
Big money is involved even more now, so a lot of the same games from the stock market are being executed here as well.
Completely agree. The cycle is just beginning. Personally I think we see $140k or higher this cycle. We always see a brief consolidation period post halving. The halving is more of a long term effect. We ran from $25k to $71k without hardly stopping. 20% corrections are completely normal. Bears think they won but the bear hunt is just beginning.
If BTC hits sub 50k area there are going to be a lot of buyers waiting. I don't think it makes it there. But it could.
One thing to watch for to really guess a top in this cycle. Open your phone app store watch for a crypto exchange like coinbase or uniswap as the #1 free app. Then the last of the retailers are getting sucked in.
July to Nov will be a very telling time frame on direction. The cycle based on history is supposed to last into 2025. I am cautious of that because the only way to truly make money (if dollars is your gauge) is to sell during that euphoria/greed stage when the last of the retailers are buying. I plan on being early than trying to time any top.
I completely agree. The cycle is just getting started. Personally think we will see $140k at least. We ran from $25k to $72k without hardly stopping, then when we see a 20% correction the bears and people who don’t understand Bitcoin act like the world is ending. 20% corrections are completely normal in crypto. We also usually see a initial post halving consolidation. The halving is a more long term effect. Bears think they won, but the bear hunt is just beginning. I think this could be the bottom, worst case we don’t find support until $52k before ripping.
Edited by Mr.Grain 5/1/2024 17:39
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| you can be against it but BTC isnt going anywhere. BTC is 1.1 T market cap.
Everything will be tokenized in 5-10 years. You can buck the system all you want.
This is the one market right now that the normal middle class person can compete to make a future or any money.
You own stocks. That market has been corrupt for decades. We aren't protected now by the gov't. Cashless society only matters to those that want the dollar or cash.
I like cash only because it has value today. What will your cash do you for when it has 0 value? Other countries that have a lot of influence and money, want the dollar to be crushed.
It;s better to adapt, than to think your govt is going to protect your cash or assets. Even if they protect the value they will tax it to 0 anyway.
I would rather be the first to the trough than the last. No one thought the car would replace the horse either. |
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NE SD | What is Bitcoin priced in? What do you get in return for selling it? What do you use to buy it? And don’t say 1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin.
If and when there is a digital only currency, it’s not going to be one created outside of the .gov, unless they take control of it that is.
If you want to buy and sell and make….actual money…, great, I’m all for it. But don’t pawn it off as a dollar replacement in its current form. BRICS is a joke, doing essentially nothing but talk since 2009, and de-dollarization will be extremely painful.
I’m not going to argue about it because neither of us will give. Besides I get enough engagement on X from the maxis to keep me busy. I’m not going to “study more” either.
Dollar Milkshake. |
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| You are correct, because the dollar has a certain value and its been our norm, we put a value on everything in dollars. That's our norm.
But most people on here know they can't trust the dollar alone. That's why we buy real estate, gold, silver. We constantly hide from the dollar.
I am not for crypto because I want the dollar to go away. I am in open to other asset classes because the world may not choose to listen to my opinion. And if I can make some money and put it into real estate all the better.
There is blockchain like BTC the government can't have control of because of how its designed. Now the exchanges that may be a different story. But how does the US control something I am using that isn't subject to US law? Like an out of country exchange? Currently the only thing they can control is how much tax they determine I owe.
There will be new hoops and lawsuits down the pipeline. But if enough people worldwide create an ecosystem they place value in, the US gov't will not be able to control it.
For now it's just an investment tool for me. And I respect your opinion because it is based on what we all live by today and have for years. |
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| deleted
Edited by jimmy 5/1/2024 19:47
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Starbuck Manitoba Canada | You are correct that I do not understand it fully or even half an idea. Where I have problems is it wild fluctuations in value.
Over 20% swings in value in such a short period of time makes it hard to place a solid value on it. |
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| Yes that is tough. But also good when its going up in your favor.
Leveraged buying and shorting really screw with that aspect. And anything that has a real low market cap can really move.
If you look at past bull runs. You will see the low, mid, and lg cap alt coins will do 100% gains in a day repeatedly when its rocking.
Its the wild wild west and very risky. Most of these coins will not be around in a couple years. But there are major players building real projects on the blockchain that will be real use cases for everyone down the road. In the meantime there is ups and downs. |
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ECIL | jimmy - 5/1/2024 20:24
Yes that is tough. But also good when its going up in your favor.
Leveraged buying and shorting really screw with that aspect. And anything that has a real low market cap can really move.
If you look at past bull runs. You will see the low, mid, and lg cap alt coins will do 100% gains in a day repeatedly when its rocking.
Its the wild wild west and very risky. Most of these coins will not be around in a couple years. But there are major players building real projects on the blockchain that will be real use cases for everyone down the road. In the meantime there is ups and downs.
What alt coins do you see potential in? I won't even attempt to pick a meme coin to try to get rich quick... Been there tried that I'm not that lucky. |
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| "No one thought the car would replace the horse"
Thanks in advance.
Bonpas |
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| Bad choice of words. I meant to convey that some did not think so. |
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| Based on projects being done and ones that survived the bear market. Not in any particular order but my favorites.
ICP
Jasmy
Celo
Fetch AI
Near
Cardano
Aioz
Aurora
Not financial advice purely opinion.
Edited by jimmy 5/2/2024 07:53
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central illinois | Wait a few months your cheers will come to a screeching halt ….bears will be bears and bitcoin is just getting warmed up…. |
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Columbia Basin, Ephrata, WA | mfro629 - 5/2/2024 10:07
Wait a few months your cheers will come to a screeching halt ….bears will be bears and bitcoin is just getting warmed up….
Crypto is for early adopters and fools. The early adopters get the money the fools put in. When the supply of fools drys up, the game ends. The good news for Bitcoin is that they seem to have marketed themselves to appeal to a bigger supply of fools, so it’ll go higher and last longer than the other coins, but the end result will eventually be the same.
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Go Bitcoin.
