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NW Indiana | Yesterdays COT report shows that managed money is still short 226k corn and 139k beans. They did cover a net of 17k and 7k beans on the week ending Tuesday. So with the eastern belt along with some other areas continuing to get rain events every few days at what point do the funds get nervous about being short? There is a big difference between taking a new long position vs having an existing short. I don't think this is anywhere near 2019 as far as prevent plant but just in regards to yield alone due to late planting the USDA dropped the corn yield 10 bu from the May wasde to the June. With estimated corn acres on the low side at what point do the funds start getting nervous a yield drop could be in the cards?
Keep in mind it doesn't actually have to happen, its just the perception it could happen that matter. If my forecast holds true very well might not turn a wheel again during the 2 week which would be the second slowest starting pace in my area that I can remember behind 2019(I would say 1% planted currently for the area) and I think this holds true for a good chunk of the eastern belt. I guess what I am getting at I could see the funds getting nervous earlier than most are expecting if this continues. Their position hasn't been netting new profits for sometime now and the upside risk likely outweighs the downside over the next 60 days.
This is also that example of when a rally can occur because the producer becomes hesitant to be a seller based on concern of not having the production.
Edited by IN555 4/27/2024 09:05
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At what point does managed money get nervous?
