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| We all know summer and the actual growing season is where everything matters.
But when do we typically make our summer highs in corn?
We have made them in June the past 15 of 24 years since 2000 (63%)
We have only made them in May or April 3 times in the last 13 years. (Charts below with data)
This summer should provide opportunities.
It does nearly every year.
Even last year as example, although we continued lower until June, we rallied $1 in the matter of weeks because the market believed drought was possible.
The US growing season is the important market factor.
If you were to take the current projected 181 yield with the current 90 million acres, we would get a carryout around 2.3 billion bushels.
Not a bullish number.
However.. 181 is an extremely optimistic number. We have struggled to get 176. So why would we get 181 this year?
The "trend line" yield has stalled out the past decade.
I think a more realistic number would be 173 to 176.
Let's say yield ends up at 176, which would be a near record yield, we would still see a carryout below 2 billion.
Now say yield drops to even just 173 which is possible, carryout would drop to around 1.6 billion bushels.
We do not even have to actually have a 173 yield. The market just has to believe that it is a possibility for even a few weeks..
If yield drops, prices will have to go higher to ration demand.….
Read the rest of todays market update where we go over everything you need to know in the grains and the upcoming opportunities
Read Here: https://txt.so/rU7CHA
(Charts below of summer highs, trend line yield, and carryout/yield)
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Attachments
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 F7DF9DB1-033F-4AD0-BC4E-7A035151833B (full).png (71KB - 81 downloads)
6525A9E0-85FC-49A5-8CD8-CFE643FE50FD (full).jpeg (82KB - 47 downloads)
61F71208-A74B-44D0-8FEA-A861739BB10B (full).jpeg (63KB - 41 downloads)
A1AB9C7A-4A18-46B1-B878-A3B153B2D15C (full).png (68KB - 70 downloads)
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July corn has made summer highs in June past 15 of 24 years
