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| Markets lower as it seems like everyone is expecting high corn acres tomorrow..
Are you ready for the USDA crap show?
By “crap show” I don’t mean sh*t show. I mean this report is going to be like approaching a craps table in the casino..
This report gets a bad wrap. Surprisingly the last time corn had a negative reaction to this report was in 2019. (Chart from Karen Braun below)
However, the fund’s positions also are very similar to that of 2019. Which was the previous shortest on record before this year took the throne. (Chart from Karen Braun below)
Our current stocks to use ratio is also the highest since 2019. (Chart from Darrin Fessler below)
It appears the market is pricing in high acres for corn.
What they are NOT pricing in is corn stocks to surprise low. If we happen to get a surprise, that is one I could see happening. Because one has to wonder if a warm winter kept product moving faster then it might have normally been if it was cold. Thus leading to potential lower stocks.
There is also the possibility that even if this report is somewhat negative, the market shakes it off and maybe even trades higher. As right now negative is what is likely priced in.
Now that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be cautious. For some of you I like having a floor in place heading into this report.
We talk about this and all the ways to be getting comfortable with this upcoming crap show in todays audio comments.
Listen Here: https://txt.so/TuyPfi
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USDA crap show - Market comments
