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Market audio comments - China hungry for cheap grain?
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Posted 3/4/2024 22:00 (#10651821)
Subject: Market audio comments - China hungry for cheap grain?

Rumor today was China was back into buying grains. If so that is very friendly for these markets.

Last time they got aggressive was in 2020 when we made our lows.

The Brazil corn crop is looking like it’s getting smaller not larger. It’s just too dry down there. The market doesn’t care today, but they are going into pollination a month from now. If this heat continues their crop could get toasted. You can’t plant a crop as fast as they did and not get any rain and expect to grow much. Brazil isn’t Iowa. If they got it planted too late and the rain shuts off it could be a problem. They need timely rain.

This could be part of the reason why China is buying a bunch of corn from Ukraine. They can’t get any from Brazil. They can’t sell something they don’t have.

I could see corn rallying into the end of March. Then if this heat and dryness continues into April, we will probably get rolling on planting, the market will take that as a negative and prices will go down. We could test $4 again, or potentially even $3.50.. But if that is the reason we go that low, watch out. Low prices cure low prices. If that happens I expect China to come in here big time.

Fast planting is short term bearish, long term bullish. If we are getting this crop into the ground early it means it is dry.

I talked to 247 Ag about a convo he had with a farmer.

He asked the farmer: “How was harvest?”

Farmer replied: “Good it was dry. We didn’t get rain. Easy harvest. Didn’t get rained or snowed out”

Then he asked: “How was winter?”

Farmer said: “Good. Didn’t get any snow storms. Been mostly mild.”

So harvest was dry. Winter was dry. Now the forecasts are hot and dry for planting. That’s 2 or 3 things in a row of dry dry dry depleting this soil moisture.

The volatility is set for this corn market to go up 50-70 cents then drop a $1.00. Then if this weather trend stays we could go right back up and how high we go depends on weather here in the US, how small that Brazil crop is, and how demand shakes out…

Listen to the rest of todays audio where we go over ways to be set up for a rally, what to do if this market breaks in spring, and one way to not get taken advantage of by Big Ag this time of year

Listen Here:
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