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| While im still firmly in the deflation camp, i cant seem to get it out of the back of my head what i assume the next panic will be. While CRE is going to be a blodbath for sure, there is something else.
While i hate gold, and i see a clear 12345 low in the dollar.... im watching very closely for a failure of the pattern. It stands to reason, if the dollar fails here, gold is going to skyrocket and commodities are going to tag along for the ride. I like wheat and corn, stay away from soybeans. Mind you, this will all be temporary as the other currencies are just as worthless. While cash for clunkers is a nice way to save face in handing out a few billion to the peons, the peons have just traded in their paid off clunker and incurred more debt.
i feel an impending doom, worse than before the housing collapse. i think people will stop paying their credit cards, even the ones that can afford to, to prove a point.
the market is follwing the 1929-30 rally pattern to a tee. 147 days of bliss. The staggering debt just doesnt go away that easy. We are in for years of stagnation. If it wasnt for govt food stamps, you would see the food lines just like the 30s
1. watch the dollar closely
2.watch gold IF it gets ready to break 1000
3.corn and wheat over beans
4.overweight tech vs. anything else.
5.let the british pound and euro squeeze the shorts before shorting the @#$ out of them. (establishing a small pound short already)
6. oil/ethanol will be obsolete in 5 years. | |
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Thoughts
